Essent Group Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Essent Group Ltd. (NYSE:ESNT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 3.9% to US$55.76. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$298m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Essent Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$1.70 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Essent Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Essent Group

Following the latest results, Essent Group's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$1.23b in 2024. This would be a meaningful 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$6.71, roughly flat on the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.59 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$61.90, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Essent Group at US$65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$57.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Essent Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.8% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Essent Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Essent Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Essent Group you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.