Corpay (CPAY): Revisiting Valuation After Recent Momentum Shift in the Share Price

Corpay (CPAY) has quietly turned into a long-term compounder, even as the stock slipped around 11% over the past year and remains down year-to-date. That disconnect is where things get interesting for investors.

See our latest analysis for Corpay.

Despite the softer year to date share price return of around 7% and a one year total shareholder return of roughly 11% in the red, Corpay’s recent 30 day share price gain above 13% hints that momentum may be quietly turning back in its favor as investors recalibrate growth expectations and risk around its payments platform.

If Corpay’s improving momentum has you wondering what else could compound over time, it is worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a source of potential new ideas.

With earnings still growing at double digits and the stock trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and some estimates of intrinsic value, is Corpay quietly undervalued today, or is the market already accounting for the next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

With Corpay last closing at $316.09 against a narrative fair value of $351.25, the story points to upside built on accelerating payments scale and margin expansion.

The accelerating shift by enterprises toward automation and digitization of payment workflows and accounts payable, as evidenced by strong adoption and success of Corpay's Paymerang platform and its new Corpay Complete payables tech, drives higher transaction volumes and drives meaningful customer acquisition, directly enhancing organic revenue growth and providing operating leverage for higher net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how double digit growth, rising margins and a richer earnings mix combine into this upside case? The narrative reveals the full playbook.

Result: Fair Value of $351.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the narrative could unravel if stablecoin adoption accelerates faster than expected or if rising compliance and cybersecurity costs squeeze Corpay’s margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Corpay narrative.

Build Your Own Corpay Narrative

If you see Corpay’s story differently or prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a customized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Corpay research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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