Capital One Financial Corporation

NYSE:COF Stock Report

Market Cap: US$70.6b

Capital One Financial Valuation

Is COF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of COF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: COF ($182.86) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($192.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: COF is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for COF?

Key metric: As COF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for COF. This is calculated by dividing COF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is COF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$4.06b
Market CapUS$70.63b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does COF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for COF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.2x
DFS Discover Financial Services
14x3.8%US$44.2b
SYF Synchrony Financial
8x-8.4%US$25.3b
AXP American Express
20.6x7.4%US$202.1b
ALLY Ally Financial
14x28.4%US$11.0b
COF Capital One Financial
17.2x15.2%US$70.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: COF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (14.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does COF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
YRD Yiren Digital
1.8xn/aUS$507.70m
XYF X Financial
1.7xn/aUS$302.56m
No more companies available in this PE range
COF 17.4xIndustry Avg. 12.3xNo. of Companies4PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: COF is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (12.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is COF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

COF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio24x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: COF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst COF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$182.86
US$177.65
-2.8%
13.1%US$210.12US$119.00n/a17
Nov ’25US$163.90
US$169.63
+3.5%
11.3%US$208.00US$119.00n/a17
Oct ’25US$146.80
US$163.77
+11.6%
11.1%US$208.00US$119.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$146.93
US$161.69
+10.0%
11.0%US$208.00US$119.00n/a17
Aug ’25US$143.89
US$161.69
+12.4%
11.0%US$208.00US$119.00n/a17
Jul ’25US$139.70
US$155.79
+11.5%
10.7%US$189.00US$111.00n/a18
Jun ’25US$137.63
US$154.95
+12.6%
10.8%US$189.00US$111.00n/a18
May ’25US$141.64
US$154.79
+9.3%
10.6%US$189.00US$111.00n/a18
Apr ’25US$145.30
US$147.36
+1.4%
10.2%US$180.00US$111.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$136.77
US$145.17
+6.1%
9.7%US$170.00US$111.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$134.56
US$139.90
+4.0%
10.1%US$160.00US$110.00n/a20
Jan ’25US$131.12
US$121.34
-7.5%
15.6%US$159.00US$87.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$113.93
US$113.51
-0.4%
15.3%US$146.00US$87.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$100.27
US$111.65
+11.4%
16.1%US$146.00US$87.00US$163.9021
Oct ’24US$97.05
US$117.68
+21.3%
14.8%US$146.00US$87.00US$146.8019
Sep ’24US$103.50
US$118.38
+14.4%
14.7%US$146.00US$87.00US$146.9319
Aug ’24US$116.48
US$117.91
+1.2%
14.2%US$145.00US$87.00US$143.8919
Jul ’24US$109.37
US$110.74
+1.2%
19.6%US$162.00US$72.00US$139.7019
Jun ’24US$106.24
US$109.55
+3.1%
19.3%US$162.00US$72.00US$137.6320
May ’24US$93.17
US$112.33
+20.6%
19.0%US$162.00US$79.00US$141.6421
Apr ’24US$96.16
US$118.63
+23.4%
17.7%US$162.00US$79.00US$145.3021
Mar ’24US$108.58
US$120.06
+10.6%
17.0%US$162.00US$79.00US$136.7721
Feb ’24US$116.33
US$117.06
+0.6%
17.2%US$162.00US$79.00US$134.5621
Jan ’24US$92.96
US$125.36
+34.9%
18.2%US$171.00US$81.00US$131.1221
Dec ’23US$99.32
US$125.79
+26.7%
17.8%US$171.00US$81.00US$113.9321
Nov ’23US$106.81
US$129.88
+21.6%
16.2%US$171.00US$77.00US$100.2720

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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