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Ally Financial's (NYSE:ALLY) earnings growth rate lags the 28% CAGR delivered to shareholders
Ally Financial Inc. (NYSE:ALLY) shareholders might be rather concerned because the share price has dropped 31% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been pleasing. In the last three years the share price is up, 91%: better than the market.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 14%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
See our latest analysis for Ally Financial
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Ally Financial was able to grow its EPS at 6.8% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. In comparison, the 24% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This suggests that, as the business progressed over the last few years, it gained the confidence of market participants. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Dive deeper into Ally Financial's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Ally Financial's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Ally Financial's TSR for the last 3 years was 108%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Ally Financial shareholders are down 49% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 13%. Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 0.4% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Ally Financial (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
What are the risks and opportunities for Ally Financial?
Ally Financial Inc., a digital financial-services company, provides various digital financial products and services to consumer, commercial, and corporate customers primarily in the United States and Canada.
Rewards
Trading at 26.9% below our estimate of its fair value
Revenue is forecast to grow 7.42% per year
Risks
Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the next 3 years
Profit margins (20.2%) are lower than last year (34.7%)
Further research on
Ally Financial
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:ALLY
Ally Financial
Ally Financial Inc., a digital financial-services company, provides various digital financial products and services to consumer, commercial, and corporate customers primarily in the United States and Canada.
Flawless balance sheet, undervalued and pays a dividend.
