Analyst Forecasts For Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) Are Surging Higher

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's statutory forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with the analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. The market may be pricing in some blue sky too, with the share price gaining 29% to US$84.16 in the last 7 days. We'll be curious to see if these new estimates convince the market to lift the stock price higher still.

Following the upgrade, the most recent consensus for Upstart Holdings from its 13 analysts is for revenues of US$1.0b in 2025 which, if met, would be a sizeable 48% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. The losses are expected to disappear over the next year or so, with forecasts for a profit of US$0.063 per share this year. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$822m and losses of US$0.89 per share in 2025. So we can see that this has sparked a pretty clear upgrade to expectations, with higher revenues anticipated to lead to profit sooner than previously forecast.

View our latest analysis for Upstart Holdings

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Upstart Holdings 18% to US$73.43 on the back of these upgrades.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Upstart Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 48% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Upstart Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away from this upgrade is that there is now an expectation for Upstart Holdings to become profitable this year, compared to previous expectations of a loss. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. With a serious upgrade to expectations and a rising price target, it might be time to take another look at Upstart Holdings.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Upstart Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are upgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.