Encore Capital Group, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ECPG Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$1.3b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Encore Capital Group Valuation

Is ECPG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ECPG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

ECPG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA6.4x
PEG Ratio-0.08x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ECPG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ECPG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.4x
ENVA Enova International
7x9.2%US$1.4b
PRG PROG Holdings
11.1x9.8%US$1.1b
PRAA PRA Group
11.6x-26.5%US$1.5b
GDOT Green Dot
19.9x-7.3%US$950.4m
ECPG Encore Capital Group
3.8x-48.6%US$1.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ECPG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the peer average (12.4x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ECPG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Finance Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a4.8%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ECPG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the US Consumer Finance industry average (5.3x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ECPG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ECPG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio3.8x
Fair PE Ratio3.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ECPG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.9x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ECPG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ECPG ($55.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($81.3)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ECPG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ECPG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$55.72
US$62.25
+11.7%
14.3%US$73.00US$50.00n/a4
Jan ’24US$47.94
US$62.25
+29.8%
14.3%US$73.00US$50.00n/a4
Dec ’23US$50.93
US$62.25
+22.2%
14.3%US$73.00US$50.00n/a4
Nov ’23US$50.98
US$71.00
+39.3%
15.3%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Oct ’23US$45.48
US$71.00
+56.1%
15.3%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Sep ’23US$53.93
US$74.75
+38.6%
14.3%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Aug ’23US$71.37
US$75.75
+6.1%
13.6%US$87.00US$59.00n/a4
Jul ’23US$58.83
US$75.75
+28.8%
13.6%US$87.00US$59.00n/a4
Jun ’23US$60.76
US$75.75
+24.7%
13.6%US$87.00US$59.00n/a4
May ’23US$57.81
US$77.50
+34.1%
14.9%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Apr ’23US$63.14
US$77.50
+22.7%
14.9%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Mar ’23US$65.12
US$77.50
+19.0%
14.9%US$87.00US$58.00n/a4
Feb ’23US$64.83
US$69.00
+6.4%
8.0%US$75.00US$60.00US$55.724
Jan ’23US$62.11
US$67.75
+9.1%
6.6%US$71.00US$60.00US$47.944
Dec ’22US$58.85
US$67.75
+15.1%
6.6%US$71.00US$60.00US$50.934
Nov ’22US$53.50
US$57.75
+7.9%
14.3%US$66.00US$46.00US$50.984
Oct ’22US$50.12
US$55.00
+9.7%
12.3%US$65.00US$46.00US$45.484
Sep ’22US$48.09
US$55.00
+14.4%
12.3%US$65.00US$46.00US$53.934
Aug ’22US$47.34
US$54.75
+15.7%
12.9%US$65.00US$45.00US$71.374
Jul ’22US$47.93
US$54.75
+14.2%
12.9%US$65.00US$45.00US$58.834
Jun ’22US$47.69
US$52.25
+9.6%
8.0%US$55.00US$45.00US$60.764
May ’22US$39.34
US$51.25
+30.3%
11.6%US$55.00US$41.00US$57.814
Apr ’22US$40.36
US$51.25
+27.0%
11.6%US$55.00US$41.00US$63.144
Mar ’22US$33.93
US$51.25
+51.0%
11.6%US$55.00US$41.00US$65.124
Feb ’22US$30.63
US$51.50
+68.1%
10.7%US$55.00US$42.00US$64.834

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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