Does Luckin Coffee's International Comeback Reshape the Bull Case for LKNC.Y?

• Luckin Coffee has emerged from bankruptcy, overtaken Starbucks as China's largest coffee chain, and expanded internationally by opening two stores in New York earlier this year, while rapidly adding over 2,100 new stores in the latest quarter.
• This development signals Luckin's successful turnaround, renewed brand strength, and intensifying competition in the global coffee market, especially as it asserts its position in both China and the U.S.
• We'll now examine how Luckin's robust international expansion and brand momentum might influence its investment narrative and future outlook.

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Luckin Coffee Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Luckin Coffee shareholder, you need to believe that its aggressive growth strategy, especially international expansion, will drive sustained profit gains without overwhelming store saturation or margin erosion. The recent surge in new store openings and entry into the US enhances momentum, but it doesn't fundamentally shift the main short-term catalyst: accelerating customer acquisition and digital engagement to boost recurring sales. The largest risk remains overexpansion, which could pressure per-store productivity if not managed efficiently, this news brings greater scrutiny but does not materially alter that risk–reward equation.

Among Luckin's recent updates, the Q2 2025 earnings report stands out: revenue hit CNY 12,358.74 million and net income rose to CNY 1,250.54 million, reflecting ongoing operational scale and strengthening profitability. While rapid store growth grabs headlines, consistent earnings progression underpins confidence in management's ability to translate expansion into actual returns and shore up investor sentiment surrounding the company's story.

Yet, against this growth, investors should not overlook the risk that even strong top-line gains can be offset by...

Read the full narrative on Luckin Coffee (it's free!)

Luckin Coffee's narrative projects CN¥73.6 billion revenue and CN¥6.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 21.5% yearly revenue growth and a CN¥3.0 billion earnings increase from CN¥3.9 billion today.

Uncover how Luckin Coffee's forecasts yield a $46.89 fair value, a 23% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Nine fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$32.39 up to US$71.48 per share, highlighting varying outlooks among private investors. In a market where operational risks from rapid expansion may weigh heavily on future returns, reviewing such differing perspectives can broaden your understanding of where Luckin Coffee’s performance expectations may diverge from consensus.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Luckin Coffee - why the stock might be worth as much as 88% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Luckin Coffee Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Luckin Coffee research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Luckin Coffee research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Luckin Coffee's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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