Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:NCLH) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to US$18.70 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$8.5b, although statutory earnings per share came in 15% below what the analysts expected, at US$0.39 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings

After the latest results, the 14 analysts covering Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings are now predicting revenues of US$9.35b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 9.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 153% to US$0.99. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$9.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.05 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$20.52, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings at US$32.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.2% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.