Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV): Assessing Valuation After Flat Revenue and a Miss on Analyst Expectations

Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) just posted quarterly revenue of about $1.3 billion, essentially flat from last year. However, it landed roughly 5% below Wall Street’s expectations, raising fresh questions about execution.

See our latest analysis for Hilton Grand Vacations.

The muted revenue print helps explain why the 3 month share price return is down about 10 percent. Even though the year to date share price return is still positive and longer term total shareholder returns remain modest, this suggests momentum is fading rather than accelerating.

If this update has you rethinking where growth and confidence might be stronger, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave opportunities beyond Hilton Grand Vacations.

Yet despite sluggish momentum and a clear miss versus expectations, HGV still trades at a sizeable discount to analyst targets. This raises the key question: is this an overlooked value entry point, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.1% Undervalued

With the most followed fair value sitting at $51.70 versus a last close of $42.36, the narrative leans toward sizable upside if forecasts land.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $785.5 million (and earnings per share of $10.84) by about September 2028, up from $57.0 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a travel stock with slim current margins gets mapped to that kind of earnings leap and low future multiple? Want to see the full playbook?

Result: Fair Value of $51.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising bad debt on customer loans and sluggish net owner growth could disrupt the upgrade-driven story and slow that projected earnings ramp.

Find out about the key risks to this Hilton Grand Vacations narrative.

Another Lens on Value

On earnings multiples, Hilton Grand Vacations looks far less forgiving. It trades on a price to earnings ratio of about 68 times, versus roughly 21 times for the US hospitality industry, while our fair ratio suggests closer to 90 times as a level the market could move toward. That gap hints at real valuation risk if profits disappoint again.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Hilton Grand Vacations Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Hilton Grand Vacations research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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