Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Shareholders of Genius Sports Limited (NYSE:GENI) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to US$7.03 following its latest second-quarter results. Revenues were in line with expectations, at US$95m, while statutory losses ballooned to US$0.09 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Genius Sports

Following the latest results, Genius Sports' 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$509.8m in 2024. This would be a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 52% to US$0.23. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$500.0m and US$0.16 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Genius Sports even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase to per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$9.27, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Genius Sports at US$12.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$7.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Genius Sports' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 32% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 23% p.a. over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Genius Sports to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Genius Sports. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Genius Sports. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Genius Sports going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Genius Sports' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.