Is Carnival Stock Set for Further Gains After Recent Earnings Beat in 2025?

Thinking about what to do with Carnival Corporation & stock right now? You are not alone. With travel snapping back and cruise interest on the rise, Carnival’s shares have become a frequent topic among investors wondering if there is still room to climb. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a stellar 65.2% return, easily outpacing the broader market. Even after a modest dip of 5.3% over the last 30 days, the shares have notched a 22.4% gain year-to-date and a striking 335.6% surge over the past three years. That type of long-term climb does not happen by accident. It suggests the market’s perception of the company and its risk profile has evolved dramatically.

But does the market have Carnival valued just right, or could there be more upside ahead? Carnival’s value score stands at 3 out of 6, which means it is considered undervalued in half of the typical checks analysts use. This could be a bullish sign for bargain hunters. Of course, stock valuation is never quite that simple. In the next section, we will walk through the main approaches investors rely on to spot a good deal before revealing an even better lens you can use to gauge Carnival’s true worth.

Carnival Corporation & delivered 65.2% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Hospitality industry.

Approach 1: Carnival Corporation & Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value. This method aims to quantify what Carnival’s future earnings are worth in present-day dollars and offers a data-driven perspective on stock valuation.

Carnival Corporation & currently generates Free Cash Flow of approximately $1.13 Billion (USD). Analysts expect this figure to rise steadily, with projections reaching $3.24 Billion in 2029. Beyond these analyst estimates, further projections suggest Free Cash Flows maintaining near this level into the next decade. These projections rely on cash flow data from multiple analysts for the first five years and then shift to forecasted estimates from Simply Wall St for the years that follow.

Based on this analysis, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of $29.07 per share. Compared to the market price, this suggests that Carnival Corporation & is currently trading about 5.3% above its calculated fair value. In practical terms, the stock appears only slightly overvalued according to this model.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carnival Corporation &.

Simply Wall St performs a valuation analysis on every stock in the world every day (check out Carnival Corporation &'s valuation analysis). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes.

Approach 2: Carnival Corporation & Price vs Earnings

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used metric for valuing profitable companies like Carnival Corporation &. It provides a snapshot of what investors are willing to pay today for a dollar of future earnings, making it a practical tool when earnings are positive and sustainable. Generally, companies with higher expected growth rates or lower perceived risks command higher PE ratios. Riskier or slower-growing businesses tend to trade at a discount.

Carnival’s current PE ratio is 15.9x. To put this in context, the Hospitality industry’s average PE is 24.5x, and direct peers are trading around 26.9x. This means Carnival is valued notably lower than both its broader industry and closest competitors, suggesting the market either sees higher risk or lower growth for the company compared to its peers.

Simply Wall St's proprietary “Fair Ratio” refines this comparison by accounting for Carnival’s unique combination of earnings growth, margins, market cap, and risk profile. For Carnival Corporation &, the calculated Fair Ratio is 29.7x. This approach is more insightful than a simple peer or industry comparison because it captures nuances specific to Carnival’s prospects, not just broad sector trends.

Comparing the actual PE (15.9x) to the Fair Ratio (29.7x), Carnival appears substantially undervalued based on where the company’s fundamentals suggest it should trade.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Carnival Corporation & Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives, which is an intuitive, story-driven approach that connects your perspectives on a company’s future (such as revenue, earnings, and margins) with specific financial forecasts and fair value estimates.

A Narrative is more than just numbers; it is your personal outlook on what drives Carnival Corporation &’s performance, grounded in your assumptions and expectations about its industry, strategy, risks, and growth opportunities. With Narratives available on Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors can easily craft their own storylines, quickly compare their “fair value” to the latest market price, and see how changes in news or earnings instantaneously update their outlook.

This makes it simple for you to decide if a stock is a buy, hold, or sell based on your unique beliefs. For example, some investors might see Carnival’s global expansion and fleet modernization as supporting a price target as high as $43, while others, more cautious about economic and geopolitical risks, could justify a target as low as $24. Narratives put the power to make informed, dynamic investment decisions directly in your hands, helping you track your rationale every step of the way.

Do you think there's more to the story for Carnival Corporation &? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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