Carnival Corporation & plc Just Reported A Surprise Profit And Analysts Updated Their Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE:CCL) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to US$18.37 in the week since its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$5.8b were what the analysts expected, Carnival Corporation & surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.07 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Carnival Corporation &

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Carnival Corporation &'s 20 analysts is for revenues of US$24.7b in 2024. This reflects a reasonable 5.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 47% to US$1.05. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$24.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.94 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 5.1% to US$22.34. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Carnival Corporation & at US$28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$13.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Carnival Corporation &'s growth to accelerate, with the forecast 11% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Carnival Corporation & is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Carnival Corporation &'s earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Carnival Corporation & going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Carnival Corporation & that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com