CAVA Group, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

It's been a sad week for CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA), who've watched their investment drop 12% to US$95.03 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$964m were what the analysts expected, CAVA Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.10 per share, an impressive 117% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for CAVA Group

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from CAVA Group's 14 analysts is for revenues of US$1.19b in 2025. This would reflect a major 23% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 53% to US$0.53 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.62 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 14% to US$129, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic CAVA Group analyst has a price target of US$175 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$100.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 23% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 23% annual growth over the past three years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 9.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that CAVA Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for CAVA Group. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of CAVA Group's future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for CAVA Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for CAVA Group (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.