CAVA Group Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
CAVA Group has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 85.4%, while the Hospitality industry saw earnings growing at 35.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 24.8% per year. CAVA Group's return on equity is 8.2%, and it has net margins of 5.4%.
Key information
85.44%
Earnings growth rate
115.50%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality Industry Growth | 19.52% |
| Revenue growth rate | 24.84% |
| Return on equity | 8.18% |
| Net Margin | 5.40% |
| Next Earnings Update | 19 May 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 03
CAVA: Strong Comps Momentum And Expansion Plans May Constrain Further Share Price Upside
Analysts have nudged the CAVA Group fair value estimate higher to $87.27 from $85.83, citing updated views on revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E following a wave of upward price target revisions and generally constructive coverage across major firms, alongside at least one valuation-driven Sell initiation. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CAVA Group presents a mix of confidence in the growth story and concern around how much of that story is already reflected in the share price.Narrative Update • Apr 18
CAVA: Elevated Comps Expectations Will Likely Limit Future Share Price Upside
Analysts have nudged their blended price target on CAVA Group higher by roughly $2, reflecting updated views that factor in higher same-store sales expectations, stronger unit economics, and a slightly richer future P/E assumption highlighted across recent research. Analyst Commentary Street research on CAVA Group has been active around the latest earnings and 2026 guidance, with many firms updating price targets and refining their views on comps, margins, and valuation.
Narrative Update • Apr 04
CAVA: Elevated Earnings Multiples Will Face Test From Same Store Sales Sustainability
The analyst price target for CAVA Group has been revised to $70.00, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E as analysts factor in recent upbeat same-store sales trends, Q4 results, and a series of higher Street targets across the sector coverage. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates on CAVA Group reflect a mix of enthusiasm for the brand and caution around execution, growth durability, and valuation.Seeking Alpha • Mar 28
CAVA: Stock Jumps For No Good Reason (Rating Downgrade)
Summary CAVA Group delivered industry-leading Q4 results with 21.2% revenue growth and positive same-restaurant sales, outperforming sector peers amid challenging conditions. CAVA's restaurant-level margins remain strong at 21.4% for the quarter, but margin contraction is evident as expansion accelerates, driven by higher costs and slower comp growth. 2026 guidance includes 74-76 new openings, 3%-5% same-restaurant sales growth, and further margin contraction, with adjusted EBITDA growth lagging revenue expansion. Despite operational excellence, CAVA's valuation—trading at 51x 2026 EBITDA—presents extreme downside risk; I downgrade the stock to 'Sell' and would exit at current levels. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaNarrative Update • Mar 21
CAVA: Menu Pricing Power And New Openings Will Support Balanced 2026 Outlook
The analyst price target for CAVA Group is updated from $71.20 to $84.00. This reflects that analysts are generally assuming stronger revenue growth and a higher future P/E multiple, while modestly lowering margin expectations and applying a slightly lower discount rate.Narrative Update • Mar 07
CAVA: Rich Earnings Multiples Will Test Sustained Same Store Sales Momentum
The CAVA Group analyst fair value estimate has been adjusted from $72.00 to $65.60 as analysts balance higher projected revenue growth and profit margins against a lower future P/E assumption and continued discussion of rich valuation multiples in recent research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CAVA Group highlights a split view.
New Narrative • Feb 22
Cava Group (CAVA) The Mediterranean Chipotle: Can the Hype Survive the Scale?
Cava Group (CAVA) enters late February 2026 as a top-tier performer in the fast-casual dining sector, with shares currently trading around $70.11. The narrative remains focused on the "Chipotle playbook" with a Mediterranean twist, as Cava successfully scales its footprint across 29 states.
Narrative Update • Feb 21
CAVA: Menu Pricing And New Mediterranean Offerings Will Support Long-Term Expansion
Our updated view keeps CAVA Group's fair value at $85, reflecting a modestly lower discount rate and slightly higher revenue growth assumptions, as analysts factor in recent price target bumps, menu pricing actions, and expectations for same store sales and earnings to be ahead of consensus. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around CAVA Group has centered on a series of price target revisions, menu pricing checks, and expectations for near term results.Narrative Update • Feb 07
CAVA: Menu Pricing Power Will Support Long-Term Expansion And Margin Improvement
Our fair value estimate for CAVA Group has been trimmed by US$1 to US$85.0, as analysts factor in updated views on revenue growth, margins, and future P/E, following a mix of recent price target changes and fresh bullish initiations on the stock. Analyst Commentary Recent research has included a mix of upward and downward target moves, along with fresh initiations, giving you a clearer sense of where more optimistic voices see room for execution and growth at CAVA Group.Narrative Update • Jan 23
CAVA: Menu Pricing Power And New Openings Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for CAVA Group higher to US$71.20 from about US$69.63, reflecting slightly stronger modeled revenue growth and a higher future P/E multiple. This comes even as recent price target changes across the Street highlight ongoing macro and traffic headwinds for the broader restaurant group.Narrative Update • Jan 09
CAVA: Menu Pricing And New Openings Will Shape Fairly Balanced Outlook
Narrative Update The analyst price target for CAVA Group has moved modestly higher to reflect an updated fair value estimate of about $69.63, with analysts citing recent menu pricing actions, refreshed restaurant sector outlooks, and revised expectations for traffic and same-store sales across fast casual peers. Analyst Commentary Recent research on CAVA Group reflects a mix of optimism about the brand and caution around near term execution and sector headwinds.Analysis Article • Jan 07
Subdued Growth No Barrier To CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) With Shares Advancing 26%
CAVA Group, Inc. ( NYSE:CAVA ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 26% after a shaky period beforehand...Narrative Update • Dec 16
CAVA: Long-Term Unit Expansion Will Outshine Near-Term Traffic And Margin Headwinds
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for CAVA Group from approximately $118.75 to $86.00 per share. This reflects trimmed revenue growth and profit margin expectations in light of softer traffic trends, macro headwinds in fast casual, and lowered near term same store sales and EBITDA forecasts, even as they still highlight the brand’s long term unit growth potential and expanding consumer adoption of Mediterranean cuisine.Narrative Update • Dec 02
CAVA: Consumer Demand And Expanding Footprint Will Drive Recovery Amid Headwinds
Analysts have lowered their price targets for CAVA Group, with the average target now down approximately $10 to $20 per share. They cite weaker same-store sales, softer consumer demand, and broader macroeconomic pressures weighing on growth expectations.Narrative Update • Nov 18
CAVA: Share Price Declines Will Present Buying Opportunity as Headwinds Subside
Analysts have reduced their price target for CAVA Group from approximately $83.56 to $67.89. They cite persistent macroeconomic pressures and softer consumer demand as key drivers of the lowered outlook.Analysis Article • Nov 14
CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) Shares May Have Slumped 26% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the CAVA Group, Inc. ( NYSE:CAVA ) share price has dived 26% in the last thirty...Narrative Update • Nov 01
CAVA: Expansion To 1,000 Locations Will Drive Long-Term Market Leadership
Analysts have reduced their fair value estimate for CAVA Group from approximately $88.81 to $83.56 per share. They cite slowing consumer demand and tempered same-store sales growth as factors behind more cautious outlooks across the restaurant sector.Narrative Update • Oct 18
Expansion To 1,000 Restaurants Will Broaden Mediterranean Reach Despite Risks
Analysts have moderately reduced their price target for CAVA Group by nearly $2 per share, citing softer-than-expected comparable sales. However, they remain positive on the company's long-term potential because of its dominant position and continued unit growth momentum.Narrative Update • Oct 04
Expansion To 1,000 Restaurants Will Broaden Mediterranean Reach Despite Risks
CAVA Group's analyst price target has been modestly reduced by analysts, falling from about $92.21 to $90.73 per share. Recent research highlights near-term sales pressures and a softer growth outlook, but notes that core fundamentals remain intact.Narrative Update • Sep 04
Expansion To 1,000 Restaurants Will Broaden Mediterranean Reach Despite Risks
CAVA Group’s analyst price target remained unchanged at $92.21 as near-term comp sales softness and lowered guidance weighed on sentiment, but analysts remain confident in the brand’s long-term positioning and recovery potential. Analyst Commentary Q2 same-store sales growth and comps were significantly below expectations, with management lowering full-year and 2025 same-store sales guidance due to macro headwinds, difficult comparisons, and the impact of newer stores entering the comp base.Analysis Article • Aug 22
Some CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE:CAVA) Shareholders Look For Exit As Shares Take 25% Pounding
CAVA Group, Inc. ( NYSE:CAVA ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...Analysis Article • Aug 15
Earnings Beat: CAVA Group, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models
NYSE:CAVA 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore CAVA Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...Seeking Alpha • Apr 01
CAVA Group: Significantly Overvalued Amid Declining Consumer Food Spending Outlook
Summary CAVA's high valuation is high due to its rapid growth, but it is at risk from economic headwinds that may substantially lower consumer discretionary spending in its key demographic. The stock's recent decline may portend an extended crash, as its valuation remains excessive compared to most consumer discretionary and restaurant stocks. Analysts' growth and margin estimates may be overly optimistic. They assume CAVA will become the next Chipotle and ignore potential economic headwinds to profit margins and same-store sales. Despite CAVA's excellent performance over recent years, I think it will continue to decline as its growth and margins fail to meet expectations over the coming quarters. CAVA's long-term prospects may still be strong, but are subject to risk if consumer food spending patterns shift back toward cooking at home, away from the historical extreme since 2020. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 26
CAVA Group's Q4 Earnings Aren't Enough To Support A Buy Rating
Summary CAVA Group's stock is down ~19% in 30 days despite solid Q4 earnings, with high SRS growth and good margins. The company opened more restaurants, achieved 21% SRS, and expanded traffic by 15.6%, indicating strong customer loyalty and growth potential. Despite good operational performance, current valuation and lack of margin safety justify a sell rating, requiring near-perfect execution for future shareholder value. A stock price correction could change the rating to hold or buy, but for now, the safety margin is too thin. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 18
CAVA Group: Why You Should Sell Now And Wait For A Retreat
Summary CAVA has the potential to become a household name over the long run, but its current stock valuation is extremely high. We conducted a 20-year DCF analysis on CAVA, using very generous assumptions, to determine CAVA's most bullish valuation. We used the historical financial data from Chipotle, one of the best growth stories in the fast-casual dining sector, to project CAVA's financials. Even under the most bullish scenario, CAVA's current valuation is fully valued, if not overvalued. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 21
CAVA Group: Overpriced And Overhyped (Rating Downgrade)
Summary I can't justify paying a 129x forward free cash flow multiple for a company with slowing growth. CAVA's current valuation leaves little room for upside and significant downside risk. Despite a clean balance sheet, CAVA stock's risk-reward profile doesn't work for me. Decelerating revenue growth and potential store cannibalization are key concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Jan 14
CAVA: High Valuation, Delicate Risk-Reward Balance
Summary CAVA's rapid growth and strategic expansion plans have led to a high valuation, warranting a hold rating due to a delicate risk/reward balance. Since its 2006 launch, CAVA has expanded to over 350 U.S. locations, focusing on health-conscious consumers with Mediterranean-inspired fast food. Impressive annual revenue growth driven by 73 new restaurants and a 13% increase in existing locations highlights CAVA's successful scalable model. With plans to triple store numbers by 2032, CAVA aims to challenge industry giants, reminiscent of Chipotle's growth trajectory. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 19
CAVA: Excellent Same Store Sales Growth Tempered By Ridiculous Price (Rating Upgrade)
Summary I'm upgrading CAVA to a neutral rating, driven by the stock's recent decline over the past two months and a strong Q3 earnings print. CAVA's same-restaurant sales growth accelerated to 18% y/y in Q3, substantially exceeding many fast-casual restaurant peers. The company's restaurant operating margins also rose to be in-line with Chipotle, the industry bellwether. Still, the company is hampered by an incredibly rich valuation at ~13x revenue (more than double Chipotle) and a ~100x adjusted EBITDA multiple. I'd recommend waiting for a better price. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Dec 11
CAVA Group: Insiders Deep Six Their Stock At 200x P/E -- You Should, Too
Summary CAVA Group, Inc.'s stock is overvalued with a forward P/E of 200x 2025 earnings, driven by investor exuberance despite modest growth projections and rising costs. Insider selling by top executives, including the CEO and chairman, has accelerated, signaling potential overvaluation and a warning for investors to take profits. The company's impressive revenue growth and profitability are overshadowed by slowing margin expansion and increasing labor and FBP costs, unsupported by its premium valuation. I reiterate my Sell rating on CAVA due to its unsustainable valuation and limited margin growth, despite the company's strong brand and healthy food offerings. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 19
Chipotle Has A Viable Challenger: CAVA Is Up And Coming
Summary Potential for entry into new markets underpins our "Buy" rating for CAVA Group, Inc. and our "Hold" for Chipotle Mexican Grill. While CMG has massive benefits of scale, continuing growth by CAVA will move it to a similar scale in a few years, which will cannibalize CMG sales. While CMG has largely saturated the US domestic market, CAVA has growth opportunities in a large number of states if it can educate Middle America about Mediterranean fare. CAVA operates at a similar gross margin as CMG, which speaks to a feisty, capable, challenge given CMG's overwhelming benefits of scale. That may change owing to CMG's access to food preparation technology, but that advantage will likely be of limited duration as CAVA grows the market. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Nov 13
CAVA Group: Don't Be The Last One Dancing When The Music Stops
Summary CAVA Group, Inc. is a well-managed, fast-growing quick-service restaurant with strong fundamentals, but its current valuation is excessively high and unsustainable. Despite exceptional Q3 results and significant growth potential, Cava's stock price is driven by momentum rather than fundamentals. The company's valuation at 15 times '25 sales is unjustifiable, suggesting a potential for significant losses when momentum breaks. Avoiding overvalued stocks is crucial; thus, I reiterate a “Sell” rating on Cava despite its strong operational performance. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Oct 24
CAVA Group: Unsupportable Valuation
Summary Shares of CAVA have surged to all-time highs on the back of recent strong Q2 results, which featured an acceleration in same-store sales. The company is set to report Q3 results on November 12. Watch out for slower consumer spending impacting sales growth trends. Despite a recently raised outlook, CAVA looks very expensive at >100x adjusted EBITDA. I remain at a sell rating for CAVA, as the stock sustains tremendous valuation and fundamental risk. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How CAVA Group makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec 25 | 1,180 | 64 | 157 | 0 |
| 05 Oct 25 | 1,132 | 137 | 151 | 0 |
| 13 Jul 25 | 1,084 | 141 | 147 | 0 |
| 20 Apr 25 | 1,037 | 142 | 141 | 0 |
| 29 Dec 24 | 964 | 130 | 133 | 0 |
| 06 Oct 24 | 913 | 54 | 128 | 0 |
| 14 Jul 24 | 845 | 43 | 124 | 0 |
| 21 Apr 24 | 785 | 29 | 118 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 729 | 13 | 117 | 0 |
| 01 Oct 23 | 681 | -8 | 111 | 0 |
| 09 Jul 23 | 645 | -26 | 105 | 0 |
| 16 Apr 23 | 608 | -41 | 100 | 0 |
| 25 Dec 22 | 564 | -59 | 89 | 0 |
| 02 Oct 22 | 551 | -61 | 86 | 0 |
| 26 Dec 21 | 500 | -37 | 73 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: CAVA has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: CAVA's current net profit margins (5.4%) are lower than last year (13.4%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: CAVA's earnings have grown significantly by 85.4% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: CAVA's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: CAVA had negative earnings growth (-50.7%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (5.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: CAVA's Return on Equity (8.2%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/06 04:58 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/06 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/28 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/28 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
CAVA Group, Inc. is covered by 32 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| David Tarantino | Baird |
| Jeffrey Bernstein | Barclays |
| Jeffrey Bernstein | Barclays |