Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Bluegreen Vacations Holding Corporation (NYSE:BVH) just released its latest second-quarter results and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$261m, some 4.2% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.34, 32% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Bluegreen Vacations Holding

Taking into account the latest results, the twin analysts covering Bluegreen Vacations Holding provided consensus estimates of US$957.6m revenue in 2023, which would reflect a noticeable 3.2% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 13% to US$4.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$963.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.80 in 2023. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$49.50, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 6.4% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 4.0% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bluegreen Vacations Holding is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Bluegreen Vacations Holding following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Bluegreen Vacations Holding's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Bluegreen Vacations Holding going out as far as 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Bluegreen Vacations Holding (at least 2 which are concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.