Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) TTM 53.3% Net Margin Challenges Bearish Profit Durability Narratives

Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of C¥15.4b and basic EPS of C¥6.53, while trailing twelve month figures showed revenue of C¥62.4b and EPS of C¥50.62, anchoring the latest print against a much stronger full year base. Over the past few quarters, the company has seen revenue move from C¥14.8b in Q2 2025 and C¥18.3b in Q3 2025 to C¥15.4b in Q4 2025. Quarterly EPS ranged from C¥6.48 in Q1 2025 to C¥30.36 in Q3 2025 and C¥6.53 in Q4 2025, giving investors a clear view of both the recent run rate and the latest quarter in context. With trailing net income and EPS now scaled to the C¥10b plus level on an annual basis, the focus naturally shifts to how durable these margins look against the forward earnings narrative.

See our full analysis for Trip.com Group.

With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up against the widely shared stories about Trip.com Group, and where the data pushes back on those narratives.

See what the community is saying about Trip.com Group

53.3% net margin on trailing C¥62.4b revenue

• On a trailing twelve month basis, Trip.com Group booked C¥62.4b of revenue and C¥33.3b of net income, which lines up with the reported 53.3% net margin.
• Consensus narrative highlights rising Asia Pacific travel demand, higher digital adoption and tools like Trip.Planner as long term drivers, and these TTM margins and earnings of C¥33.3b show how current profitability already reflects that higher volume and app led engagement, even as future profit margins are assumed to move toward 27.7% in the forecasts.
  • Supporters of the bullish view point to travel demand, but the current 53.3% margin is well above the 31.5% margin embedded in those same forecasts, so the story depends on how comfortable you are with earnings settling at a lower but still profitable level.
  • The TTM revenue base of C¥62.4b against an expected C¥83.3b by 2028 means the bullish case leans on both further top line growth and maintaining enough of today’s margin strength to reach the C¥23.1b earnings figure in the scenario laid out.

Trip.com’s earnings profile here is exactly what bullish investors focus on, but the gap between a 53.3% trailing margin and a 27.7% margin in the assumptions is where the debate really starts, not ends. 🐂 Trip.com Group Bull Case

P/E 7x vs industry 23.2x and peers 27.6x

• With the share price at US$52.27 and a P/E of 7x, Trip.com Group is described as trading well below the US Hospitality industry average P/E of 23.2x and the cited peer average of 27.6x.
• Critics highlight that earnings are forecast to decline by about 17.2% per year over the next three years, and that concern helps explain why the market is not paying industry like multiples even with today’s strong net income.
  • The same data that flags a 7x P/E also points to earnings of C¥18.0b today and a path to C¥23.1b by 2028 in one scenario, so investors who agree with the bearish angle on earnings durability may treat the low multiple as compensation for that risk rather than a clear bargain.
  • Bears also focus on mounting competition and potential disintermediation from direct airline and hotel channels, and when you set those worries next to the low P/E, it shows how much of the current pricing is tied to fears about future profit erosion rather than the recent TTM performance.

Skeptical investors see that 7x P/E as the market pricing in those bearish earnings and competition concerns, not just ignoring the company’s recent profitability. 🐻 Trip.com Group Bear Case

DCF fair value C¥151.23 vs US$52.27 share price

• The analysis cites a DCF fair value of 151.23 compared with the current share price of US$52.27 and an analyst price target of US$81.94, which together frame a wide gap between modelled values and where the stock actually trades.
• Consensus narrative talks about rising travel demand and international expansion as long term tailwinds, and these valuation markers show how those expectations translate into numbers that are well above today’s market pricing.
  • The DCF fair value of 151.23 assumes future cash flows that justify a much higher level than US$52.27, so anyone leaning on the consensus view will want to stress test whether revenue growing toward C¥83.3b and earnings reaching C¥23.1b feel realistic.
  • The analyst target of US$81.94 sits between the DCF fair value and the current price, which underlines how different valuation approaches can give a spread of outcomes even when they all start from the same revenue and margin assumptions.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Trip.com Group on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If the mix of strong margins, low P/E and valuation gaps leaves you on the fence, move quickly to test the numbers yourself and shape your own take. A helpful place to start is by weighing up 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign so you can judge the balance of concerns and potential upsides for yourself.

See What Else Is Out There

Trip.com Group’s story hinges on whether its 53.3% net margin and low 7x P/E can hold up against concerns about weaker future earnings and competition.

If those profit durability questions leave you uneasy, use 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores to quickly spot companies where the risk profile scores better and potential earnings swings may be less severe.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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