Last Update 17 May 26
Fair value Decreased 0.011%Take-Two Set to Revolutionize Gaming with GTA VI's Massive Launch
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is a company which develops and makes action games, particularly mobile, console, computer and on-line games. Mobile is the single biggest platform at 51% of net bookings ($2.87 billion), driven largely by the Zynga portfolio games like Toon Blast, Empires & Puzzles, Words With Friends, and Match Factory!, played on smartphones and tablets across iOS and Android.
Consoles come second at 38% ($2.17 billion), meaning PlayStation and Xbox. The PS5 and Xbox Series X/S are the current primary platforms, with the company noting approximately 138 million Gen 9 consoles installed worldwide as of December 2025.
PC and other platforms account for the remaining 11% ($609 million), covering Steam and other digital PC storefronts., for playing on various devices such as Computers, Xbox and PlayStations.
The company was founded over 30 years ago and currently employs around 13,000 staff. The market cap is approximately $42 billion.
The closing price on May 14, 2026, was $242.41 up 6% on the day but still down over 5% year to date.
An important source of revenue for Take-Two continues to be from Grand Theft Auto 5. It's been 13 long years since Grand Theft Auto V arrived on the scene. Thirteen years!
It became the best-selling entertainment title of the entire decade. Even today it is still generating meaningful revenue for Take-Two Interactive.
The current excitement around Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is to do with the upcoming launch, scheduled for November 19, 2026, just before Christmas of the next version: Grand Theft Auto VI.
In just six days on May 21st, Take-Two is due to announce its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings. The timing could not be more electric. Pre-orders for GTA VI are expected to open on May 18th, this coming Monday, led by Best Buy affiliates. This pre-order launch is the same week as the earnings call. I am expecting publicity in the gaming industry around this pre-order period as the numbers become known. It is possible that the pre-launch orders will be accompanied by an official trailer for the game, coinciding with the annual results presentation. The countdown clock is ticking.
Take-Two's most recent quarterly results for Q3 2026, covering the period to 31 December 2026, were genuinely impressive. Net bookings of $1.76 billion beat the guidance of $1.55 billion. Management attributed the improved performance to NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto Online and to several mobile titles, including Toon Blast, Empire and Puzzles, and Top Eleven. High margin revenues from in-game purchases rose 23%.
Following the massive beat in expectations, management raised their full year fiscal 2026 guidance to net bookings of $6.65 - $6.70 billion, implying an 18% growth at the midpoint. Guidance on operating cash flow was lifted from approximately $250 million previously to approximately $450 million. EBITDA is expected to land somewhere in the range of $657 million to $681 million.
TTWO has a diversified portfolio of titles, with 15 of them in the US top 200 grossing mobile games. Their titles are available on various consoles, PC and others. This diversification offers a shock absorber against reliance on any single title. The business does not live or die on any single release, even though GTA VI is likely to dwarf everything else after its release in November.
When the results are released in six days, analysts will be watching for continued momentum and mobile engagement. In particular they will be looking at whether the new launch of WWE 2K 26 (launched on March 13th 2026) is doing well. More than anything they will be looking for more information about GTA VI, pre-pre-order positioning, launch marketing spend guidance, and any early read on 2027's net bookings. Management has already telegraphed that fiscal 2027 will represent record levels of bookings. The only question is how record-breaking?
There are a growing number of consoles installed worldwide. 138 million of them are what's known as “Gen 9” consoles. These are the latest versions of consoles such as Microsoft's Xbox Series X and Series S, and Sony's PlayStation 5.
What makes Gen 9 special compared to older consoles: The new consoles added faster processors, support for real-time ray tracing graphics, 4K resolution output, and in some cases 8K. Both console families also introduced new internal solid-state drives (SSDs) to dramatically reduce or eliminate loading times.
The number of consoles is continuing to grow. These new machines are the state-of-the-art devices which will showcase to the maximum a powerful game like GTA VI. If you use one of these latest consoles, GTA VI is almost a must-buy! Even with a 12 to 15% purchase rate for GTA VI, which would be historically modest, that would imply 16 to 20 million units sold in the launch quarter. In addition there will be online monetization, subscription revenue, and probably in-game purchases.
GTA V’s online ecosystem, which is now 13 years old, generated revenue for over a decade and continues to do so. If GTA VI online follows a similar trajectory, the long tail value of this single title is almost incalculable on a conventional near-term model.
Base Case: $277
At $242.41, Take-Two trades at approximately 6.4 times trailing 12-month net bookings of around $6.5 billion. That multiple is not cheap but it is also not demanding for a company on the verge of what may be the largest game launch in commercial history.
Wall Street analysts are broadly aligned. The consensus across many tens of analysts is strong buy, with a median 12-month price target of over $280, implying upside from the current price of around 16%. I base my valuation on an assumed revenue growth of 15.20% and a discount rate of 9.10%. I factor in a margin on that of around 13.30%. Based on those numbers I arrive at a mid-point valuation of $277.
Bear Case: $215
Whilst the optimism around GTA VI is high, we cannot exclude that there might be some hiccup or delay in the launch and that would create skepticism on the company's ability to deliver. The launch was previously expected to be prior to Christmas 2025 and they delayed that, pushing it back nearly a year. The shares fell heavily due to the delays but are since on a strong recovery path.
If there was some problem with the proposed launch date, the share price could be hit severely. I therefore give it a downside valuation based on the existing games portfolio of $215 per share.
Bull Case: $350+
On the other hand if GTA VI delivers, the price could explode past $350. If GTA VI lives up to the hype, $350 could just be a stepping stone.
Here's an angle that doesn't get talked about enough: nostalgia. The original Grand Theft Auto launched back in 1997, which means the kids who were sneaking in late-night gaming sessions on the earlier titles are now solidly in their thirties and forties. They may not be gamers anymore, but they are investors. And when media attention around a blockbuster launch reaches fever pitch, there's something quietly powerful about a brand name that takes you straight back to your youth. Fond memories have a habit of opening wallets.
Conclusion
If everything appears to be on track when the full year results are released in a week's time, the shares could re-rate upwards towards my target.
Whilst the company will most likely show a loss of $2 per share for 2026, all the signs are pointing to positive EPS for 2027 and beyond.
Much of the thesis around the share price depends heavily, but not totally, on GTA VI. There is a strong reliance in the investment thesis, on this one game. It could underperform, it could be delayed again. The gaming landscape in 2026 is far more crowded than it was in 2013 when the previous version was released.
Take-Two sits at a genuinely pivotal inflection point. Over many years it has made heavy investment, including strategic acquisitions, and is approaching the moment of payoff. GTA VI could reshape its financial profile for the better half of the next decade.
Despite the earnings per share loss for FY 2026, which is expected, the business is stronger than it looks based on GAAP earnings. Recurring revenues are accelerating. The development pipeline is the deepest in the company's history. The number of consoles is at a record level. Everything is favorable for a flagship console release. The risk-reward is tilted to the upside.
What to Watch
There are two things to watch.
- If the pre-orders open this weekend, the first few days will tell an important story about demand.
- There should be management guidance in the forthcoming May 21st annual results release about GTA VI, as to whether everything is on track.
It could go either way so keep your finger above the buy and sell buttons depending on which way you see the wind blowing.
Please note that everything written above is my personal opinion and it is not intended to be investment advice. My Beat the Benchmark 2026 portfolio currently has a shareholding in Take-Two Interactive Software. I have not bought or sold any of TTWO’s shares in the last few months and I have no plan to trade in them in the near future. This narrative represents the author's independent analysis and is not investment advice. All figures sourced from Take-Two Interactive filings, company investor presentations, and publicly available analyst consensus data as of May 15, 2026. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is a company which develops and makes action games, particularly mobile, console, computer and on-line games. Mobile is the single biggest platform at 51% of net bookings ($2.87 billion), driven largely by the Zynga portfolio games like Toon Blast, Empires & Puzzles, Words With Friends, and Match Factory!, played on smartphones and tablets across iOS and Android.
Consoles come second at 38% ($2.17 billion), meaning PlayStation and Xbox. The PS5 and Xbox Series X/S are the current primary platforms, with the company noting approximately 138 million Gen 9 consoles installed worldwide as of December 2025.
PC and other platforms account for the remaining 11% ($609 million), covering Steam and other digital PC storefronts., for playing on various devices such as Computers, Xbox and PlayStations.
The company was founded over 30 years ago and currently employs around 13,000 staff. The market cap is approximately $42 billion.
The closing price on May 14, 2026, was $242.41 up 6% on the day but still down over 5% year to date.
An important source of revenue for Take-Two continues to be from Grand Theft Auto 5. It's been 13 long years since Grand Theft Auto V arrived on the scene. Thirteen years!
It became the best-selling entertainment title of the entire decade. Even today it is still generating meaningful revenue for Take-Two Interactive.
The current excitement around Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. is to do with the upcoming launch, scheduled for November 19, 2026, just before Christmas of the next version: Grand Theft Auto VI.
In just six days on May 21st, Take-Two is due to announce its Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings. The timing could not be more electric. Pre-orders for GTA VI are expected to open on May 18th, this coming Monday, led by Best Buy affiliates. This pre-order launch is the same week as the earnings call. I am expecting publicity in the gaming industry around this pre-order period as the numbers become known. It is possible that the pre-launch orders will be accompanied by an official trailer for the game, coinciding with the annual results presentation. The countdown clock is ticking.
Take-Two's most recent quarterly results for Q3 2026, covering the period to 31 December 2026, were genuinely impressive. Net bookings of $1.76 billion beat the guidance of $1.55 billion. Management attributed the improved performance to NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto Online and to several mobile titles, including Toon Blast, Empire and Puzzles, and Top Eleven. High margin revenues from in-game purchases rose 23%.
Following the massive beat in expectations, management raised their full year fiscal 2026 guidance to net bookings of $6.65 - $6.70 billion, implying an 18% growth at the midpoint. Guidance on operating cash flow was lifted from approximately $250 million previously to approximately $450 million. EBITDA is expected to land somewhere in the range of $657 million to $681 million.
TTWO has a diversified portfolio of titles, with 15 of them in the US top 200 grossing mobile games. Their titles are available on various consoles, PC and others. This diversification offers a shock absorber against reliance on any single title. The business does not live or die on any single release, even though GTA VI is likely to dwarf everything else after its release in November.
When the results are released in six days, analysts will be watching for continued momentum and mobile engagement. In particular they will be looking at whether the new launch of WWE 2K 26 (launched on March 13th 2026) is doing well. More than anything they will be looking for more information about GTA VI, pre-pre-order positioning, launch marketing spend guidance, and any early read on 2027's net bookings. Management has already telegraphed that fiscal 2027 will represent record levels of bookings. The only question is how record-breaking?
There are a growing number of consoles installed worldwide. 138 million of them are what's known as “Gen 9” consoles. These are the latest versions of consoles such as Microsoft's Xbox Series X and Series S, and Sony's PlayStation 5.
What makes Gen 9 special compared to older consoles: The new consoles added faster processors, support for real-time ray tracing graphics, 4K resolution output, and in some cases 8K. Both console families also introduced new internal solid-state drives (SSDs) to dramatically reduce or eliminate loading times.
The number of consoles is continuing to grow. These new machines are the state-of-the-art devices which will showcase to the maximum a powerful game like GTA VI. If you use one of these latest consoles, GTA VI is almost a must-buy! Even with a 12 to 15% purchase rate for GTA VI, which would be historically modest, that would imply 16 to 20 million units sold in the launch quarter. In addition there will be online monetization, subscription revenue, and probably in-game purchases.
GTA V’s online ecosystem, which is now 13 years old, generated revenue for over a decade and continues to do so. If GTA VI online follows a similar trajectory, the long tail value of this single title is almost incalculable on a conventional near-term model.
Base Case: $277
At $242.41, Take-Two trades at approximately 6.4 times trailing 12-month net bookings of around $6.5 billion. That multiple is not cheap but it is also not demanding for a company on the verge of what may be the largest game launch in commercial history.
Wall Street analysts are broadly aligned. The consensus across many tens of analysts is strong buy, with a median 12-month price target of over $280, implying upside from the current price of around 16%. I base my valuation on an assumed revenue growth of 15.20% and a discount rate of 9.10%. I factor in a margin on that of around 13.30%. Based on those numbers I arrive at a mid-point valuation of $277.
Bear Case: $215
Whilst the optimism around GTA VI is high, we cannot exclude that there might be some hiccup or delay in the launch and that would create skepticism on the company's ability to deliver. The launch was previously expected to be prior to Christmas 2025 and they delayed that, pushing it back nearly a year. The shares fell heavily due to the delays but are since on a strong recovery path.
If there was some problem with the proposed launch date, the share price could be hit severely. I therefore give it a downside valuation based on the existing games portfolio of $215 per share.
Bull Case: $350+
On the other hand if GTA VI delivers, the price could explode past $350. If GTA VI lives up to the hype, $350 could just be a stepping stone.
Here's an angle that doesn't get talked about enough: nostalgia. The original Grand Theft Auto launched back in 1997, which means the kids who were sneaking in late-night gaming sessions on the earlier titles are now solidly in their thirties and forties. They may not be gamers anymore, but they are investors. And when media attention around a blockbuster launch reaches fever pitch, there's something quietly powerful about a brand name that takes you straight back to your youth. Fond memories have a habit of opening wallets.
Conclusion
If everything appears to be on track when the full year results are released in a week's time, the shares could re-rate upwards towards my target.
Whilst the company will most likely show a loss of $2 per share for 2026, all the signs are pointing to positive EPS for 2027 and beyond.
Much of the thesis around the share price depends heavily, but not totally, on GTA VI. There is a strong reliance in the investment thesis, on this one game. It could underperform, it could be delayed again. The gaming landscape in 2026 is far more crowded than it was in 2013 when the previous version was released.
Take-Two sits at a genuinely pivotal inflection point. Over many years it has made heavy investment, including strategic acquisitions, and is approaching the moment of payoff. GTA VI could reshape its financial profile for the better half of the next decade.
Despite the earnings per share loss for FY 2026, which is expected, the business is stronger than it looks based on GAAP earnings. Recurring revenues are accelerating. The development pipeline is the deepest in the company's history. The number of consoles is at a record level. Everything is favorable for a flagship console release. The risk-reward is tilted to the upside.
What to Watch
There are two things to watch.
- If the pre-orders open this weekend, the first few days will tell an important story about demand.
- There should be management guidance in the forthcoming May 21st annual results release about GTA VI, as to whether everything is on track.
It could go either way so keep your finger above the buy and sell buttons depending on which way you see the wind blowing.
Please note that everything written above is my personal opinion and it is not intended to be investment advice. My Beat the Benchmark 2026 portfolio currently has a shareholding in Take-Two Interactive Software. I have not bought or sold any of TTWO’s shares in the last few months and I have no plan to trade in them in the near future. This narrative represents the author's independent analysis and is not investment advice. All figures sourced from Take-Two Interactive filings, company investor presentations, and publicly available analyst consensus data as of May 15, 2026. Investors should conduct their own research and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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The user Clive_Thompson has a position in NasdaqGS:TTWO. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
