Trip.com Group Limited

NasdaqGS:TCOM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$43.7b

Trip.com Group Valuation

Is TCOM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$115.10
Fair Value
41.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
30
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TCOM ($67.16) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($115.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCOM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCOM?

Key metric: As TCOM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TCOM. This is calculated by dividing TCOM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TCOM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.8x
EarningsCN¥16.21b
Market CapCN¥320.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCOM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.4x
CCL Carnival Corporation &
17.7x14.2%US$33.5b
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings
51.1x18.1%US$60.1b
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises
25x17.0%US$65.0b
MAR Marriott International
27.8x8.6%US$77.0b
TCOM Trip.com Group
19.8x10.1%US$43.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the peer average (30.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate
1.7xn/aUS$2.05m
No more companies available in this PE range
TCOM 19.8xIndustry Avg. 22.9xNo. of Companies14PE01632486480+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (22.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCOM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCOM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.8x
Fair PE Ratio28.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TCOM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$67.16
US$76.92
+14.5%
12.2%US$100.10US$51.06n/a30
Jan ’26US$68.66
US$75.99
+10.7%
11.3%US$99.68US$51.24n/a29
Dec ’25US$64.65
US$75.20
+16.3%
9.5%US$86.91US$51.62n/a30
Nov ’25US$65.19
US$65.49
+0.5%
12.8%US$83.88US$47.75n/a30
Oct ’25US$62.51
US$64.83
+3.7%
12.0%US$80.95US$48.54n/a30
Sep ’25US$47.14
US$64.26
+36.3%
12.0%US$80.38US$47.99n/a30
Aug ’25US$41.14
US$65.13
+58.3%
10.2%US$79.00US$49.83n/a30
Jul ’25US$47.55
US$65.76
+38.3%
11.8%US$86.61US$49.78n/a30
Jun ’25US$51.51
US$66.12
+28.4%
11.6%US$86.83US$49.90n/a30
May ’25US$48.74
US$55.48
+13.8%
10.1%US$71.54US$43.72n/a30
Apr ’25US$46.96
US$54.81
+16.7%
9.9%US$71.63US$43.77n/a30
Mar ’25US$44.91
US$54.57
+21.5%
10.5%US$71.96US$43.98n/a31
Feb ’25US$37.40
US$49.80
+33.1%
12.0%US$68.49US$35.74n/a31
Jan ’25US$36.01
US$50.04
+39.0%
12.0%US$68.92US$35.96US$68.6631
Dec ’24US$34.14
US$49.99
+46.4%
12.0%US$68.90US$35.95US$64.6531
Nov ’24US$33.53
US$50.28
+50.0%
10.9%US$66.99US$35.93US$65.1930
Oct ’24US$34.97
US$50.56
+44.6%
9.9%US$67.13US$42.53US$62.5130
Sep ’24US$40.38
US$48.09
+19.1%
8.9%US$58.61US$39.68US$47.1431
Aug ’24US$40.36
US$48.58
+20.4%
8.9%US$57.86US$40.30US$41.1431
Jul ’24US$35.00
US$47.43
+35.5%
9.9%US$57.72US$38.45US$47.5530
Jun ’24US$32.23
US$45.47
+41.1%
10.0%US$56.51US$33.58US$51.5131
May ’24US$35.29
US$46.26
+31.1%
10.0%US$57.59US$34.22US$48.7431
Apr ’24US$37.67
US$46.64
+23.8%
10.1%US$58.65US$34.48US$46.9631
Mar ’24US$37.73
US$41.38
+9.7%
11.2%US$52.56US$30.79US$44.9131
Feb ’24US$37.64
US$41.80
+11.1%
10.7%US$52.02US$31.66US$37.4030
Jan ’24US$34.40
US$39.50
+14.8%
11.5%US$52.06US$30.65US$36.0130
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 30 Analysts
US$76.92
Fair Value
12.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
30
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/19 03:13
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Trip.com Group Limited is covered by 81 analysts. 38 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Alicia YapBarclays
Yanfang JiangBenchmark Company