Trip.com Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TCOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TCOM ($61.32) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] ($84.45)

Is TCOM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCOM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TCOM ($61.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($84.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCOM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCOM?

Key metric: As TCOM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TCOM. This is calculated by dividing TCOM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TCOM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	19.9x
Earnings	CN¥14.06b
Market Cap	CN¥280.09b

TCOM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	5.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.2x
PEG Ratio	1.9x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCOM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.6x
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings	51.6x	17.6%	US$60.6b
CCL Carnival Corporation &	20.3x	19.8%	US$31.2b
RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises	23.9x	18.9%	US$62.2b
H Hyatt Hotels	10.6x	-31.8%	US$14.7b
TCOM Trip.com Group	20.5x	10.7%	US$38.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the peer average (26.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCOM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Hospitality Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
THRS.F Agility Real Estate	1.7x	n/a	US$2.05m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the US Hospitality industry average (24.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCOM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCOM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	19.9x
Fair PE Ratio	26.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCOM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.