Trip.com Group Limited

NasdaqGS:TCOM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$33.2b

Trip.com Group Future Growth

Future criteria checks 0/6

Trip.com Group's earnings are forecast to decline at 15.5% per annum while its annual revenue is expected to grow at 10.4% per year. EPS is expected to decline by 17.2% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 10.7% in 3 years.

Key information

-15.5%

Earnings growth rate

-17.24%

EPS growth rate

Hospitality earnings growth18.1%
Revenue growth rate10.4%
Future return on equity10.71%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated05 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Apr 28

TCOM: Solid Q4 Execution And Conservative Guidance Will Support Future Overseas Demand

Trip.com Group's updated analyst price target has edged down by a small amount, aligning with a series of recent Street target cuts into a $68 to $79 range, as analysts factor in slightly adjusted revenue growth and margin assumptions while still highlighting solid Q4 execution and broadly constructive views on the shares. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary clusters around lower price targets for Trip.com Group but still generally positive views on execution and long term growth potential.
Narrative Update • Apr 11

TCOM: Q4 Execution And Regulatory Resolution Will Support Future Overseas Demand

Trip.com Group's fair value estimate edges up to $76.50 as analysts trim formal price targets into a $68 to $79 range, reflecting sector wide multiple compression, Q4 revenue that slightly topped expectations, and updated margin assumptions tied to reinvestment. Analyst Commentary Across the Street, analysts have reset their price targets for Trip.com Group into a tighter range while keeping largely positive ratings, pointing to a balance of solid execution and valuation caution.
Narrative Update • Mar 27

TCOM: Q4 Execution And Regulatory Resolution Will Support Long-Term Overseas Demand

The updated analyst price target for Trip.com Group has edged slightly lower to approximately $76.21. Analysts point to reduced industry multiples and some margin pressure, despite broadly solid Q4 revenue performance and generally supportive ratings.
Narrative Update • Mar 11

TCOM: Regulatory Probe Resolution Will Support Long-Term Overseas Travel Demand

The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has been reduced from $87.08 to $76.26, as analysts factor in slightly lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions, a lower future P/E of 18.80 versus 21.60, and recent target cuts into the $68 to $79 range despite ongoing positive views on the business. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Trip.com Group reflects a mix of optimism on the core business and caution on valuation, margins, and regulatory headlines.
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

Trip.com Q4 Earnings: Robust Travel Momentum Silences Regulatory Fears

Summary Trip.com (TCOM) is rated a Strong Buy at $50, with a forward P/E of 12x and 45-50% upside potential. TCOM’s growth is underpinned by robust Chinese inbound/outbound travel, expanding Asia-Pacific demand, and best-in-class gross profit margins among Chinese Internet peers. AI agents are expected to enhance, not disrupt, TCOM’s business model due to its scale, data, and proprietary AI tools. Regulatory risks from SAMR are likely overblown, with potential fines manageable relative to TCOM’s strong cash position. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Feb 24

TCOM: Regulatory Probe Resilience Will Support Long-Term Overseas Travel Strength

Analysts have made a small upward adjustment to their Trip.com Group price target to about $87, reflecting slightly lower discount rate and P/E assumptions, while factoring in recent regulatory probe commentary that suggests limited long term impact on the company’s industry position. Analyst Commentary Street research around the recent regulatory probe is split, with some focusing on valuation support and others on potential near term share price pressure and execution risk.
Narrative Update • Feb 10

TCOM: Overseas Travel Strength Will Offset Regulatory Probe Concerns

Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Trip.com Group to about $86.91 from $87.05, reflecting a marginally higher discount rate and updated views on the recent regulatory probe, as well as earlier positive readings of Q3 performance and raised Q4 expectations. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to Q3 results that were described as solid, with hotel bookings during the summer holidays and October's Golden Week supporting the recent fair value work and helping underpin confidence in Trip.com Group's execution.
Narrative Update • Jan 27

TCOM: Overseas Travel Demand And Solid Q3 Execution Will Support Upside

Narrative Update: Trip.com Group Analyst Price Target Analysts have made only a marginal adjustment to their valuation framework for Trip.com Group, with a slightly lower fair value estimate of about US$87 per share. This reflects modest tweaks to discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that are informed by recent research highlighting solid Q3 results, a raised Q4 outlook and ongoing attention to the recent regulatory probe.
Narrative Update • Jan 12

TCOM: Overseas Holiday Demand Will Support Q4 Momentum And Earnings Upside

Narrative Update on Trip.com Group The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has been revised higher by about US$1, supported by Street research highlighting Q3 results that were better than expected and strong holiday driven travel demand carrying into Q4. Analyst Commentary Recent Street commentary on Trip.com Group has focused on the Q3 performance and the updated view for Q4, with price targets moving higher as analysts reassess the balance between growth, execution and valuation.
Analysis Article • Jan 04

The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Trip.com Group Limited's (NASDAQ:TCOM) Earnings Yet

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.9x Trip.com Group Limited ( NASDAQ:TCOM ) may be sending bullish...
Narrative Update • Dec 14

TCOM: Overseas Holiday Demand Will Drive Q4 Momentum And Support Upside

Analysts have nudged their price target for Trip.com Group modestly higher to approximately $86 per share from about $85, citing stronger than expected Q3 performance and an improving Q4 outlook supported by resilient travel demand despite broader consumption headwinds. Analyst Commentary Analyst commentary around Trip.com Group remains largely constructive, with recent target hikes reflecting confidence in the company’s ability to execute on growth initiatives despite a softer macro consumption backdrop.
Narrative Update • Nov 27

TCOM: Overseas Travel Strength Will Drive Q4 Momentum And Profitability

The analyst price target for Trip.com Group has increased from $83.78 to $85.81. This change reflects continued confidence in the company's strong results and improved revenue outlook, as noted by analysts following its robust Q3 performance and resilient travel demand.
Narrative Update • Nov 11

TCOM: Revenue Momentum And Margins Will Be Driven By Inbound Travel

Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been slightly increased to $83.78 from $83.58. Analysts cite stronger-than-expected revenue and margin performance, along with robust volume growth overcoming pricing pressures.
Analysis Article • Nov 03

There's Been No Shortage Of Growth Recently For Trip.com Group's (NASDAQ:TCOM) Returns On Capital

Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...
Narrative Update • Oct 28

International Tourism Momentum Will Lift Asia-Pacific Travel Sector Through 2025

Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been nudged slightly higher to $83.58 per share from $83.54. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected Q2 results and incremental growth in inbound travel as supporting factors for the modest upward revision.
Narrative Update • Oct 05

Expanding Asia-Pacific Market Will Drive International Tourism

Analysts have raised their price target for Trip.com Group, increasing it from about $82.70 to $83.54. They cite stronger-than-expected revenue growth and improving profit margins in the latest quarter.
Narrative Update • Aug 29

Promoting Inbound Travel And Rural Revitalization In China Will Support Sustainable Long-Term Growth

The consensus Analyst Price Target for Trip.com Group has risen to $79.15, primarily reflecting a sharp decline in the company’s future P/E ratio, while revenue growth expectations remain stable. What's in the News Completed repurchase of 7,000,000 shares (1.06%) for $400 million under the buyback announced in February 2025.
Analysis Article • Aug 20

Earnings Not Telling The Story For Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM)

NasdaqGS:TCOM 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Trip.com Group's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
Analysis Article • Jul 31

With EPS Growth And More, Trip.com Group (NASDAQ:TCOM) Makes An Interesting Case

It's common for many investors, especially those who are inexperienced, to buy shares in companies with a good story...
Analysis Article • Jul 16

We Think Trip.com Group (NASDAQ:TCOM) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Analysis Article • Jun 24

Investors Will Want Trip.com Group's (NASDAQ:TCOM) Growth In ROCE To Persist

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. Firstly, we'd want to identify a...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 27

Trip.com: Navigating Global Expansion Amid Domestic Headwinds

Summary Trip.com reported strong Q4 results, with revenue growth of 23% y/y, but margins fell short due to international market investments. US shares dipped, but Hong Kong shares rose; recommend buying on the dip due to promising international expansion and reasonable margin traction. Valued at 15x forward EBITDA, implying $79/share and a 37% upside; investment in Trip.com app crucial for diversifying revenue streams. Risks include reliance on China's domestic tourism and potential increased spending on global expansion, possibly leading to multiple contraction. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jan 23

Trip.com Group Stock: Growth Momentum Remains Strong

Summary Trip.com Group Limited's growth has remained strong, with Q3 earnings beating Wall Street's expectations through rapid growth and operating leverage. Growth prospects remain good with continued normalization in Chinese tourism and fairly good economic growth. TCOM stock remains valued with a fair margin of safety, as I estimate 13% upside to a fair value of $76. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Nov 24

China's Resilient Travel Market Spurs Revenue Growth And Global Expansion Excitement

Resilient domestic and cross-border travel, combined with personalized experiences, will enhance Trip.com's revenue growth and potentially improve margins.
Seeking Alpha • Nov 19

Trip.com: Beyond Its Recovery Story Of 2024

Summary Trip.com has a strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves, but its volatile revenue growth rates and reliance on China's economy are concerning. Despite a 65% stock increase in 2024, the unpredictable growth rates and limited financial transparency under IFRS reporting make me cautious. The stock is priced at 16x EBITDA, which is somewhat appealing, but the risk-reward profile doesn't align with my Inflection investing strategy. Given the uncertainties, I prefer to stay neutral and avoid taking a position on TCOM at this time. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Oct 30

Trip.com: Chinese Travel Trends Suggest Continued Growth

Summary Trip.com Group Limited is well-positioned to capture growth from the growing Chinese travel industry. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive decline in especially TCOM's 2020–2022 revenues, but the following tourism recovery has led to recently incredibly strong growth momentum, looking to strengthen TCOM's Q3. TCOM stock is valued with a slight undervaluation, still falling within a margin of safety, as the industry also has cheaper alternative investments. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Aug 27

Trip.com: The Hottest Consumer Market In China

Summary Trip.com is a leading online travel agent in China, controlling 50% of the market, with strong growth prospects due to eased travel restrictions and increasing international flight capacity. The company trades at 14X forward earnings, lower than international peers, but corporate governance issues and a lack of shareholder returns are significant concerns. Despite generating strong cash flow, TCOM has not paid dividends and has engaged in limited share buybacks, raising red flags about capital allocation. We recommend holding off on buying Trip.com stock until a more shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy is adopted. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Jul 24

Trip.com: Arriving At Buy Territory

Summary Trip.com offers exposure to the Chinese recovery with decent revenue growth and margin expansion due to economic recovery and diversified revenue streams. Despite share dilution, TCOM's business model, network effect, and potential outbound travel recovery make it a compelling investment option if you tolerate the Chinese stock risks. Expectations for TCOM include margin expansion, capitalizing on outbound travel recovery, revenue growth stabilization, and continued share dilution. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 21

Trip.com: Still A Buy With Above-Expectations Q1 Earnings

Summary Trip.com Group's normalized net profit rose by +96.4% YoY to RMB4,055 million in Q1 2024 as a result of strong top-line growth and good cost management. TCOM's short-to-medium term prospects are healthy, taking into account the expected outbound travel recovery and the growth potential of its international OTA business. I leave my existing Buy rating for Trip.com Group unchanged, after assessing its recent quarterly financial performance and its growth outlook. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 06

Trip.com: Untangling Rebound Momentum From Rich Valuation

Summary TCOM is a leading online travel agency with a large inventory, global reach, and a user-friendly mobile app. Share performance has been strong, with a 16% 1-year return. Valuation remains rich, but better entry point could make the stock attractive. Fundamentals are fine overall, with decent revenue growth, improved profitability, and liquidity and debt management. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NasdaqGS:TCOM - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (CNY Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202889,43623,05822,82025,73616
12/31/202779,59320,69220,90124,51931
12/31/202670,82118,40319,15325,52234
12/31/202562,40933,29413,58214,379N/A
9/30/202559,75531,170N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202557,29018,045N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202555,21917,032N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202453,29417,06719,03419,625N/A
9/30/202450,87516,207N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202448,74214,057N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202447,21710,85520,66521,282N/A
12/31/202344,5109,91821,39822,004N/A
9/30/202339,21210,678N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202332,3646,329N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202325,1285,767N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202220,0391,4032,1432,641N/A
9/30/202219,693-1,488N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202218,145-2,603N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202220,024-3,319N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202120,023-5501,9042,475N/A
9/30/202120,3061,288N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202120,4243,715N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202117,6933,886N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202018,316-3,247-4,355-3,823N/A
9/30/202021,687-2,243N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202026,701-3,028N/AN/AN/A
3/31/202032,233-2,955N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201935,6667,0116,4997,333N/A
9/30/201934,8913,813N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201933,7701,881N/A8,649N/A
3/31/201932,3984,665N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201830,9651,112N/A7,115N/A
9/30/201829,5812,654N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201828,3455,187N/AN/AN/A
3/31/201827,4823,163N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201726,7962,155N/A7,069N/A
9/30/201725,6872,449N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201723,1401,079N/AN/AN/A
3/31/201721,095200N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201619,245-1,418N/A5,270N/A
9/30/201617,035-2,000N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201614,645391N/A1,472N/A
3/31/201612,7611,055N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201510,8982,508N/A3,049N/A
9/30/20159,9372,208N/A1,498N/A
6/30/20158,8859N/AN/AN/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TCOM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.5% per year).

Earnings vs Market: TCOM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-15.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TCOM's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TCOM's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TCOM's revenue (10.4% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TCOM's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (10.7%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/11 08:10
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/11 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Trip.com Group Limited is covered by 70 analysts. 34 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jiong ShaoBarclays
Alicia YapBarclays
Yanfang JiangBenchmark Company