Update shared on 11 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.24%Trip.com Group's analyst price target has been slightly increased to $83.78 from $83.58. Analysts cite stronger-than-expected revenue and margin performance, along with robust volume growth overcoming pricing pressures.
Analyst Commentary
Following the latest quarterly results, analysts have provided updated commentary on Trip.com Group, focusing on drivers influencing future performance and valuation.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased their price targets, which reflects heightened confidence in Trip.com Group's ability to deliver strong revenue and profit growth in the coming years.
- Recent results indicate that solid volume growth has effectively offset ongoing pricing headwinds. This outcome underscores the company's resilient business model.
- Upward revisions to future net revenue and non-GAAP profit estimates point to improved execution and growing optimism for 2025 and 2026 financial performance.
- Inbound travel is being recognized as an emerging growth driver and adds incremental value to Trip.com Group's long-term outlook.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious about ongoing pricing pressure, which could limit margin expansion if volume growth does not remain robust.
- Some concern exists that external market dynamics may challenge the sustainability of recent outperformance.
- Potential headwinds from macroeconomic factors or changing travel trends could impact future quarters and valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Trip.com Group announced a share repurchase program, authorizing up to $5,000 million for buybacks of ordinary shares and/or ADSs (Key Developments).
- Between April 1, 2025 and August 27, 2025, the company completed the repurchase of 7,000,000 shares, representing 1.06 percent of shares outstanding, for $400 million under the buyback initiative announced in February 2025 (Key Developments).
- As of August 27, 2025, Trip.com Group has completed the repurchase of 17,232,943 shares in total, representing 3.26 percent of shares, amounting to $702.52 million under the earlier buyback announced in April 2014 (Key Developments).
- A board meeting is scheduled for November 17, 2025 to consider and approve the company's financial results for the quarter ending September 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company held a board meeting on August 27, 2025, reviewing financial results for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Increased marginally from $83.58 to $83.78, reflecting a modest gain in projected long-term worth.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 8.12% to 8.09%, suggesting a modest reduction in perceived investment risk.
- Revenue Growth: Remained nearly unchanged, edging down from 13.31% to 13.31%.
- Net Profit Margin: Improved incrementally from 26.82% to 26.86%, pointing to expectations of more efficient profitability.
- Future P/E: Rose fractionally from 22.88x to 22.91x, indicating a minor revaluation of future earnings potential.
Disclaimer
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