Trip.com Group Limited Just Beat EPS By 86%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Trip.com Group Limited (NASDAQ:TCOM) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.9% to US$51.96 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of CN¥12b were what the analysts expected, Trip.com Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of CN¥6.38 per share, an impressive 86% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Trip.com Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Trip.com Group's 34 analysts is for revenues of CN¥52.5b in 2024. This reflects a notable 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to climb 17% to CN¥19.61. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥52.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥16.84 in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a solid gain to earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 16% to US$65.28. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Trip.com Group analyst has a price target of US$86.91 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$49.93. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Trip.com Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.8% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Trip.com Group is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Trip.com Group following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Trip.com Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Trip.com Group Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.