Assessing Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) Valuation After Strong Multi Year Returns And Indicated Intrinsic Discount

Trip.com Group: recent returns and key data points

Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) has drawn attention after a solid stretch of recent returns, with the stock up around 9.6% over the past month and roughly 10% over the past 3 months.

Over the past year, Trip.com Group has delivered a total return of about 18.9%. The 3 year and 5 year total returns are very large, at roughly 11x and 13x respectively. The shares most recently closed at US$76.82.

The company reports annual revenue of CN¥59,755.0 and net income of CN¥31,170.0. Annual revenue growth is 11.1%, while net income growth shows a 17.3% decline. Trip.com Group carries a value score of 5, and the stock is currently trading at what is described as a 38.5% intrinsic discount.

See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group.

The recent 7 day share price return of 6.8% and 30 day share price return of 9.6%, alongside an 18.9% 1 year total shareholder return, indicate momentum building on top of already very large multi year gains. The share price of US$76.82 is described as trading at a 38.5% intrinsic discount.

If Trip.com Group has caught your eye, this could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out other travel related names through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Trip.com Group trading at an indicated 38.5% intrinsic discount after very large multi year returns, the key question now is whether that gap signals a fresh opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.7% Undervalued

Trip.com Group's most followed narrative sees fair value at about US$86 per share, compared to the recent close around US$76.82, which frames the current discount.

Ongoing investment in proprietary artificial intelligence, personalized recommendation engines, and integrated "one-stop" trip planning tools (like Trip.Planner and Intelli-Trip) is described as driving higher user engagement, stronger repeat bookings, and better operating leverage, which in turn is seen as supporting margin expansion and increased customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits behind that valuation gap? The narrative refers to double digit revenue growth, firm margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes real staying power. Curious how those moving parts add up to that fair value line in the sand?

Result: Fair Value of $86.04 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, some moving parts could easily challenge that upside story, including rising competition from other online travel platforms and any renewed disruption to China-related cross-border travel.

Find out about the key risks to this Trip.com Group narrative.

Build Your Own Trip.com Group Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to test your own view, you can build a custom Trip.com Group story in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trip.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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