Assessing Trip.com Group (NasdaqGS:TCOM) Valuation After Recent Share Price Weakness

How Trip.com Group stock has been trading recently

Trip.com Group (TCOM) has seen mixed share performance, with a 0.8% move over the past day, contrasted with weaker returns over the week, month and past 3 months as investors reassess travel exposure.

See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group.

At a share price of $61.77, Trip.com Group’s recent 7 day share price return of an 18.36% decline and year to date share price return of a 17.08% decline contrast with a 3 year total shareholder return of 62.10%. This suggests fading short term momentum alongside a stronger multi year outcome.

If Trip.com’s recent pullback has you rethinking your exposure to travel, it could be a useful moment to size up auto manufacturers as a different part of the market to research.

With a recent pullback, a 51% gap to one estimate of intrinsic value and a 41% discount to analyst targets, Trip.com looks out of favour. So is this weakness a chance to buy, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 29.1% Undervalued

With Trip.com Group last closing at $61.77 against a narrative fair value of about $87.12, the current gap on paper is sizeable.

Ongoing investment in proprietary artificial intelligence, personalized recommendation engines, and integrated "one-stop" trip planning tools (like Trip.Planner and Intelli-Trip) is driving higher user engagement, stronger repeat bookings, and better operating leverage, supporting margin expansion and increased customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue pace, margin profile, and future P/E this narrative leans on to reach that value? The full story spells it out clearly.

The narrative pieces together expected revenue growth, profit margins, future earnings and a specific P/E multiple, then discounts those cash flows back at an 8.11% rate to land on that fair value estimate.

Result: Fair Value of $87.12 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this story can change quickly if competition eats into commissions or if fresh travel restrictions affect cross border trips linked to China.

Find out about the key risks to this Trip.com Group narrative.

Build Your Own Trip.com Group Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to rely on your own analysis, you can quickly build a custom Trip.com view in under 3 minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trip.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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