Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCRI) Just Released Its Yearly Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Last week, you might have seen that Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCRI) released its annual result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.5% to US$68.03 in the past week. Monarch Casino & Resort reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$501m and statutory earnings per share of US$4.20, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Monarch Casino & Resort

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Monarch Casino & Resort from four analysts is for revenues of US$512.7m in 2024. If met, it would imply an okay 2.2% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 3.9% to US$4.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$504.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.44 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$72.50, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Monarch Casino & Resort, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$69.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Monarch Casino & Resort is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Monarch Casino & Resort's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Monarch Casino & Resort is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$72.50, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Monarch Casino & Resort going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Monarch Casino & Resort that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.