Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It's been a good week for Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (NASDAQ:MCRI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 8.5% to US$94.16. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$522m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Monarch Casino & Resort surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$4.96 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Monarch Casino & Resort after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Monarch Casino & Resort

Taking into account the latest results, Monarch Casino & Resort's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be US$531.8m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 2.4% to US$4.98 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$525.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.85 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Monarch Casino & Resort's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target rose 7.0% to US$91.80, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock's valuation as well. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Monarch Casino & Resort at US$105 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$82.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Monarch Casino & Resort's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 9.6% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Monarch Casino & Resort is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Monarch Casino & Resort following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Monarch Casino & Resort's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Monarch Casino & Resort going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Monarch Casino & Resort that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.