The one-year underlying earnings growth at Bloomin' Brands (NASDAQ:BLMN) is promising, but the shareholders are still in the red over that time
Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLMN) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 16% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last year have been disappointing. Like a receding glacier in a warming world, the share price has melted 68% in that period. The share price recovery is not so impressive when you consider the fall. Arguably, the fall was overdone.
Given the past week has been tough on shareholders, let's investigate the fundamentals and see what we can learn.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Bloomin' Brands grew its earnings per share, moving from a loss to a profit.
We're surprised that the share price is lower given that improvement. If the improved profitability is a sign of things to come, then right now may prove the perfect time to pop this stock on your watchlist.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 9.3% in the last year, Bloomin' Brands shareholders lost 67% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 2% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Bloomin' Brands .
Bloomin' Brands is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of small cap companies at attractive valuations which insiders have been buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Bloomin' Brands might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.