American Public Education, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

It's been a good week for American Public Education, Inc. (NASDAQ:APEI) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.5% to US$27.57. Revenues were US$165m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.41, an impressive 193% ahead of estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about American Public Education. View them for free.

After the latest results, the five analysts covering American Public Education are now predicting revenues of US$656.0m in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 3.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 36% to US$1.40. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$654.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.20 in 2025. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the decent improvement in earnings per share expectations following these results.

See our latest analysis for American Public Education

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 21% to US$32.00. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic American Public Education analyst has a price target of US$35.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$30.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that American Public Education's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 11% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that American Public Education is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around American Public Education's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that American Public Education's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for American Public Education going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that American Public Education is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.