US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Investors in US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.3% to close at US$49.58 following the release of its annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$36b were in line with what the analysts predicted, US Foods Holding surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.02 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for US Foods Holding

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering US Foods Holding are now predicting revenues of US$37.8b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a credible 6.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 29% to US$2.62. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$37.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.67 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$54.70, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on US Foods Holding, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$62.00 and the most bearish at US$45.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that US Foods Holding's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 6.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while US Foods Holding's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for US Foods Holding going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that US Foods Holding is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.