US Foods Holding Corp.

NYSE:USFD Stock Report

Market Cap: US$17.9b

US Foods Holding Future Growth

Future criteria checks 2/6

US Foods Holding is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 15.5% and 4.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 18.1% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 26.5% in 3 years.

Key information

15.5%

Earnings growth rate

18.10%

EPS growth rate

Consumer Retailing earnings growth9.3%
Revenue growth rate4.6%
Future return on equity26.50%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated18 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Analysis Article • May 09

US Foods Holding Corp. Just Missed EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

US Foods Holding Corp. ( NYSE:USFD ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell...

Recent updates

Analysis Article • May 09

US Foods Holding Corp. Just Missed EPS By 19%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

US Foods Holding Corp. ( NYSE:USFD ) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell...
Narrative Update • Apr 26

USFD: Steady Q4 Execution And Tuck In M&A Will Support Re Rating

The analyst price target for US Foods Holding has been adjusted slightly higher, with the model moving by about $0.20. Analysts point to broadly higher Street targets supported by recent research that presents Q4 as a steady quarter and reflects updated views on growth, profitability, and valuation assumptions.
Seeking Alpha • Apr 13

US Foods Holding: A Truly Defensive Winner Of The Trade-Down Economy

Summary US Foods Holding is rated Buy, leveraging macro weakness to expand private label brands and execute a robust M&A pipeline. USFD delivered strong Q4 and 2025 results: 4.1% net sales growth, 11% Adj. EBITDA growth, and 26.3% Adj. Diluted EPS increase. Guidance for 2026 targets 4–6% net sales growth, 9–13% Adj. EBITDA growth, and 18–24% Adj. Diluted EPS growth, with $400–440M CAPEX. Risks include macro shocks from inflation, Iran conflict, and consumer trade-downs that can lead to a recession, but USFD’s defensive positioning and buybacks support the risk-reward. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 12

USFD: Future Execution And M&A Program Will Support Earnings Multiple Re Rating

Analysts have lifted the blended price target for US Foods Holding, with the fair value estimate moving from about $108.20 to roughly $109.53, citing a wave of recent target increases across major firms following what has been described as a mixed but solid Q4 print. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on US Foods points to a cluster of price target increases around the latest Q4 results, alongside at least one downgrade, giving you a mix of optimism and caution to weigh.
Narrative Update • Mar 28

USFD: Future Execution And Buybacks Will Support Earnings Multiple Re Rating

Analyst price targets for US Foods Holding have shifted modestly higher, with multiple firms lifting their views into a broad range that now extends as high as an increase of $28, as analysts factor in recent quarterly results and updated outlooks on the business. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research around US Foods Holding reflects a generally constructive tone on valuation and execution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings following the latest quarterly update and sector work.
Narrative Update • Mar 14

USFD: Higher Earnings Multiple And Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Potential

Analysts have raised their blended price targets on US Foods Holding, with the range now extending into the high $80s to mid $90s. They cite a mix of generally constructive reactions to recent earnings and sector outlook updates, even as one firm adopted a more cautious stance with a downgrade.
Narrative Update • Feb 28

USFD: Higher Earnings Multiple And Buybacks Will Support A Constructive Outlook

Analysts have raised their blended price target for US Foods Holding to $110.20 from $104.07, citing updated assumptions around fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E after a series of recent target revisions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent research has been active around US Foods Holding, with several firms updating price targets and one making a rating downgrade.
Narrative Update • Feb 14

USFD: Recent Buybacks And Guidance Will Shape Balanced Outlook

Analysts have lifted their average price target on US Foods Holding by about $12 to $104.07, citing updated assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E, along with a broad series of recent target increases from major firms with only limited offsets from downgrades and trims. Analyst Commentary Street research on US Foods Holding has been active, with several firms updating their targets and ratings in a short span.
Analysis Article • Dec 22

What You Can Learn From US Foods Holding Corp.'s (NYSE:USFD) P/E

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 30.9x US Foods Holding Corp. ( NYSE:USFD ) may be sending very bearish...
Narrative Update • Oct 22

Analysts Raise US Foods Target Following Margin Gains and Growth Outlook Amid Mixed Market Views

US Foods Holding’s analyst price target has been raised to $92.40 from $91.33. This reflects analysts’ increased confidence in the company’s growing margins and accelerated revenue, supported by balanced growth strategies.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Digital Automation And Sustainable Sourcing Will Redefine Away Dining

Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, US Foods Holding is benefiting from accelerating case growth, margin expansion, and improved industry demand, leading analysts to maintain their fair value estimate at $91.33. Analyst Commentary Case growth at US Foods accelerated in Q2 despite macroeconomic headwinds, with potential catalysts for further improvement in the second half of 2025.
Analysis Article • Sep 03

Is US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) Trading At A 31% Discount?

Key Insights The projected fair value for US Foods Holding is US$113 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity US Foods...
Analysis Article • Aug 15

We Like The Quality Of US Foods Holding's (NYSE:USFD) Earnings

NYSE:USFD 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore US Foods Holding's Fair Values from the Community and select yours...
Analysis Article • Jul 31

Why US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) Could Be Worth Watching

US Foods Holding Corp. ( NYSE:USFD ) saw a significant share price rise of 38% in the past couple of months on the...
Analysis Article • Jul 16

With US Foods Holding Corp. (NYSE:USFD) It Looks Like You'll Get What You Pay For

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 35.6x US Foods Holding Corp. ( NYSE:USFD ) may be sending very bearish...
Analysis Article • May 30

Should You Be Adding US Foods Holding (NYSE:USFD) To Your Watchlist Today?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...
Seeking Alpha • Feb 24

US Foods Holding: Still Not Likely To Beat The Market

Summary I rated US Foods Holding stock a 'hold' due to its fair valuation, despite impressive operational growth and solid future guidance. The company reported strong revenue and adjusted profit growth, driven by increased case volume and food cost inflation. Management's 2025 guidance projects significant earnings and EBITDA growth, yet the stock remains fairly valued compared to peers. US Foods Holding's acquisition strategy and share buybacks are positive, but I aim to outperform the market, not just match it. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Feb 18

US Foods Holding: Rating Downgrade On Cautious FY 2025 Outlook

Summary I am downgrading US Foods Holding to a hold rating due to aggressive 2025 growth assumptions, particularly in independent restaurant case volumes. USFD delivered strong 4Q24 results with revenue up 6.2% y/y and adj EBITDA up 13.7% y/y, driven by strategic initiatives. Concerns arise from weakening demand in the independent restaurant category and the risk of USFD missing its FY25 guidance and consensus estimates. USFD's current valuation at 11x forward EBITDA is at the high end of its historical range, posing a risk of multiple deratings if growth targets are missed. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Nov 29

US Foods Holding: This Pick Is No Longer On Sale

Summary US Foods Holding has shown strong revenue and profit growth, sending shares up 36.2% since August and 76.5% since February 2023. Despite positive financial performance, including a 6.8% revenue increase year-over-year recently and improved profit margins, the stock is no longer attractively priced. Management's future growth plans include annual revenue growth of 5% and EBITDA growth of 10% from 2025 to 2027, with significant capital allocation. Given the current valuation and recent stock performance, I am downgrading USFD from a 'Buy' to a 'Hold' recommendation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
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New Narrative • Aug 22

Descartes Technology And Decisive Acquisitions Set To Propel Revenue And Earnings Growth

Implementation of new technology and digital platforms aims to boost operational efficiency and customer experience, potentially increasing net margins and revenue.
Seeking Alpha • Aug 09

US Foods Holding: Still Appetizing At Current Levels

Summary US Foods Holding has shown strong growth in revenue and earnings, with shares up 36.6% since a bullish article was written about it in October 2023. Recent financial results for the second quarter of the 2024 fiscal year exceeded expectations, with revenue up 7.7% and earnings per share at $0.80. Management forecasts continued growth in revenue, earnings, and cash flow for the company, with plans for acquisitions and growth initiatives between 2025 and 2027. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • May 16

US Foods Holding: A Leader In A Fragmented And Resilient Industry

Summary US Foods Holding has demonstrated strong top-line growth and expanding profit margins over the past three years. In 1Q24, USFD's net sales continued to grow, driven by case volume growth and food cost inflation. USFD's addressable markets are expected to grow until 2025, and the company has completed the acquisition of IWC Food Service to extend its reach into Tennessee. In addition, USFD's net leverage ratio is well within management's guided range of 2.5x and 3x. Net leverage decreased 0.4x year-over-year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Mar 02

US Foods Holding Shows Great Execution; Upgrading To Buy

Summary US Foods Holding showed strong execution and beat revenue expectations in 4Q23, leading to an upgrade to a buy rating. Margins are expected to continue improving, driving faster EBITDA growth than revenue in the near-to-medium term. Ongoing cost-saving and productivity improvement initiatives should support margin expansion and drive further upside potential. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Seeking Alpha • Dec 27

US Foods: A High Quality Defensive Business At An Attractive Price

Summary US Foods Holding Corp. is a leading US foodservice distribution company. The company operates a high-quality business and enjoys competitive advantages due to scale. USFD is expected to grow earnings at an above-market rate over the next few years, driven mostly by margin expansion. The stock is trading at a below-market multiple and is also trading at an attractive valuation relative to peers. I am initiating USFD with a buy rating. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NYSE:USFD - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (USD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202845,4661,2221,3691,72610
12/31/202743,1221,0471,2621,67814
12/31/202641,4318741,1201,42414
3/28/202639,6836778481,272N/A
12/27/202539,4246769591,369N/A
9/27/202539,1155589781,359N/A
6/28/202538,6525539321,278N/A
3/29/202538,2795271,0881,426N/A
12/28/202437,8774948331,174N/A
9/28/202437,3225757181,096N/A
6/29/202436,7005227511,108N/A
3/30/202436,0045066651,000N/A
12/30/202335,5974998311,140N/A
9/30/202335,1764358561,087N/A
7/1/202334,9874409291,159N/A
4/1/202334,801319632886N/A
12/31/202234,057228500765N/A
10/1/202233,181204210512N/A
7/2/202232,154159118428N/A
4/2/202230,990144101401N/A
1/1/202229,487121145419N/A
10/2/202127,98639192400N/A
7/3/202125,944-18-272-107N/A
4/3/202122,841-161495651N/A
1/2/202122,885-254224413N/A
9/26/202023,681-138479734N/A
6/27/202024,364-318571,136N/A
3/28/202026,247182268544N/A
12/28/201925,939385N/A760N/A
9/28/201925,046392N/A724N/A
6/29/201924,668401N/A692N/A
3/30/201924,383411N/A571N/A
12/29/201824,175407N/A609N/A
9/29/201824,130563N/A687N/A
6/30/201824,181545N/A692N/A
3/31/201824,182484N/A819N/A
12/30/201724,147444N/A749N/A
9/30/201723,829265N/A622N/A
7/1/201723,466302N/A623N/A
4/1/201723,114223N/A540N/A
12/31/201622,919210N/A549N/A
10/1/201623,176123N/A410N/A
7/2/201623,131-5N/A592N/A
4/2/201623,167174N/A592N/A
1/2/201623,128168N/A556N/A
9/26/201522,946225N/A684N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: USFD's forecast earnings growth (15.5% per year) is above the savings rate (3.5%).

Earnings vs Market: USFD's earnings (15.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (16.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: USFD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: USFD's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: USFD's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: USFD's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (26.5%)

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/21 05:41
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/21 00:00
Earnings2026/03/28
Annual Earnings2025/12/27

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

US Foods Holding Corp. is covered by 28 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays
Jeffrey BernsteinBarclays
Alok PatelBerenberg