US Foods Holding Valuation

Is USFD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • PM vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of USFD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: USFD ($51.36) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($134.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: USFD is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for USFD?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

USFD key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.2x
PEG Ratio1.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does USFD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for USFD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27x
PFGC Performance Food Group
27.7x19.2%US$11.9b
SYY Sysco
19.3x7.1%US$40.4b
ANDE Andersons
18.1x15.3%US$1.8b
CHEF Chefs' Warehouse
42.8x21.6%US$1.5b
USFD US Foods Holding
25.2x15.8%US$12.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: USFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the peer average (27x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does USFD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Consumer Retailing Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.6%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.6%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: USFD is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (20.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is USFD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

USFD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio25.2x
Fair PE Ratio25.4x

PM vs Fair Ratio: USFD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst USFD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$51.36
US$57.48
+11.9%
6.5%US$64.00US$50.00n/a15
Feb ’25US$47.26
US$52.52
+11.1%
7.6%US$60.00US$45.00n/a15
Jan ’25US$45.41
US$50.85
+12.0%
6.0%US$56.00US$45.00n/a15
Dec ’24US$43.86
US$50.48
+15.1%
5.8%US$56.00US$45.00n/a15
Nov ’24US$39.44
US$49.01
+24.3%
6.2%US$54.00US$44.00n/a14
Oct ’24US$39.70
US$50.09
+26.2%
4.8%US$54.00US$44.00n/a13
Sep ’24US$40.67
US$50.09
+23.2%
4.8%US$54.00US$44.00n/a13
Aug ’24US$43.06
US$49.24
+14.4%
5.1%US$54.00US$44.00n/a13
Jul ’24US$44.00
US$49.09
+11.6%
4.9%US$54.00US$44.00n/a13
Jun ’24US$40.59
US$48.42
+19.3%
4.4%US$52.00US$44.00n/a12
May ’24US$38.19
US$45.42
+18.9%
6.9%US$50.00US$40.00n/a12
Apr ’24US$36.94
US$45.42
+22.9%
6.9%US$50.00US$40.00n/a12
Mar ’24US$37.89
US$45.21
+19.3%
7.7%US$50.00US$37.00n/a14
Feb ’24US$38.58
US$42.71
+10.7%
7.4%US$48.00US$37.00US$47.2614
Jan ’24US$34.02
US$41.70
+22.6%
9.7%US$48.00US$34.00US$45.4115
Dec ’23US$36.16
US$41.47
+14.7%
9.7%US$48.00US$34.00US$43.8616
Nov ’23US$29.61
US$41.22
+39.2%
12.8%US$50.00US$31.00US$39.4416
Oct ’23US$26.44
US$42.72
+61.6%
9.5%US$50.00US$36.00US$39.7016
Sep ’23US$30.25
US$42.90
+41.8%
9.6%US$50.00US$36.00US$40.6715
Aug ’23US$31.90
US$43.37
+35.9%
10.1%US$50.00US$34.00US$43.0615
Jul ’23US$31.29
US$43.57
+39.2%
9.7%US$50.00US$34.00US$44.0015
Jun ’23US$32.51
US$44.41
+36.6%
9.5%US$53.00US$36.00US$40.5916
May ’23US$37.62
US$44.37
+17.9%
7.2%US$50.00US$40.00US$38.1915
Apr ’23US$37.55
US$44.37
+18.2%
7.1%US$50.00US$40.00US$36.9415
Mar ’23US$38.34
US$44.75
+16.7%
6.6%US$50.00US$40.00US$37.8914
Feb ’23US$36.25
US$43.37
+19.6%
8.8%US$50.00US$35.00US$38.5815

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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