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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage

NYSE:NGVC
Snowflake Description

Excellent balance sheet with acceptable track record.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
NGVC
NYSE
$429M
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. US
  3. Consumer Retailing
Company description

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The last earnings update was 48 days ago. More info.


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  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
NGVC Share Price and Events
Price Volatility
NGVC
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market
Related Companies

Value

 Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage.

NYSE:NGVC Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 8.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year US Government Bond Rate 3%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for NYSE:NGVC
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year US Govt Bond Rate 3%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 7.1%
Consumer Retailing Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.52
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.52 (1 + (1- 21%) (13.41%))
0.576
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.8
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 2.95% + (0.8 * 7.05%)
8.59%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for NYSE:NGVC using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 5 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

NYSE:NGVC DCF 1st Stage: Next 5 year cash flow forecast
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Levered FCF (USD, Millions) 12.13 13.71 15.50 17.52 19.80
Source Est @ 13.02% Est @ 13.02% Est @ 13.02% Est @ 13.02% Est @ 13.02%
Present Value
Discounted (@ 8.59%)
11.17 11.63 12.10 12.60 13.11
Present value of next 5 years cash flows $60.61
NYSE:NGVC DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= $19.80 × (1 + 2.95%) ÷ (8.59% – 2.95%)
$361.36
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)5
= $361.36 ÷ (1 + 8.59%)5
$239.33
NYSE:NGVC Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= $60.61 + $239.33
$299.94
Equity Value per Share
(USD)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= $299.94 / 22.36
$13.41
NYSE:NGVC Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (USD) From above. $13.41
Current discount Discount to share price of $18.77
= -1 x ($18.77 - $13.41) / $13.41
-40%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-06-30) in USD $0.53
NYSE:NGVC Share Price ** NYSE (2018-08-17) in USD $18.77
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 98 Publicly-Listed Consumer Retailing Companies 20.94x
United States of America Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 7,196 Publicly-Listed Companies 18.08x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage.

NYSE:NGVC PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= NYSE:NGVC Share Price ÷ EPS (both in USD)

= 18.77 ÷ 0.53

35.56x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is overvalued based on earnings compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United States of America market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 35.56x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts
-1.7%per year
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 85 Publicly-Listed Consumer Retailing Companies 2.09x
United States of America Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 5,692 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.59x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

NYSE:NGVC PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 35.56x ÷ -1.7%

-20.35x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage earnings are not expected to grow next year, we can't assess if its growth is good value.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's assets?
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-06-30) in USD $6.46
NYSE:NGVC Share Price * NYSE (2018-08-17) in USD $18.77
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 119 Publicly-Listed Consumer Retailing Companies 2.13x
United States of America Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 11,745 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.86x
NYSE:NGVC PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= NYSE:NGVC Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in USD)

= 18.77 ÷ 6.46

2.91x

* Primary Listing of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is overvalued based on assets compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Consumer Retailing industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Consumer Retailing industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 3 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
-1.7%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the low risk savings rate of 3%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the United States of America market average.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United States of America market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
NYSE:NGVC Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 3 Analysts -1.7%
NYSE:NGVC Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 3 Analysts 6.7%
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 8.7%
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 4.4%
United States of America Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11.9%
United States of America Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 6.3%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (1 month ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in USD Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
NYSE:NGVC Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30 965 49 10 2
2019-09-30 900 41 8 3
2018-09-30 845 40 9 3
NYSE:NGVC Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-06-30 830 35 12
2018-03-31 812 40 10
2017-12-31 788 38 10
2017-09-30 769 41 7
2017-06-30 752 44 7
2017-03-31 736 33 9
2016-12-31 721 33 10
2016-09-30 705 29 11
2016-06-30 687 33 13
2016-03-31 666 35 15
2015-12-31 647 44 16
2015-09-30 625 41 16

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's revenue is expected to grow by 6.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (1 month ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:NGVC Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30 0.47 0.55 0.38 2.00
2019-09-30 0.35 0.40 0.32 3.00
2018-09-30 0.42 0.50 0.33 2.00
NYSE:NGVC Past Financials Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) EPS *
2018-06-30 0.53
2018-03-31 0.47
2017-12-31 0.45
2017-09-30 0.31
2017-06-30 0.32
2017-03-31 0.41
2016-12-31 0.44
2016-09-30 0.51
2016-06-30 0.57
2016-03-31 0.65
2015-12-31 0.73
2015-09-30 0.72

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Unable to establish if Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage will efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future without estimates of Return on Equity.
X
Future performance checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United States of America market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 1/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's growth in the last year to its industry (Consumer Retailing).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (65.9% vs 7.3%)
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings growth has exceeded the US Consumer Retailing industry average in the past year (65.9% vs 13%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

NYSE:NGVC Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-06-30 830.06 11.81 207.18
2018-03-31 811.64 10.42 205.21
2017-12-31 787.93 10.01 201.22
2017-09-30 769.03 6.89 198.24
2017-06-30 751.53 7.12 195.46
2017-03-31 736.10 9.20 191.27
2016-12-31 721.29 9.78 187.78
2016-09-30 705.50 11.47 181.39
2016-06-30 686.85 12.90 174.89
2016-03-31 666.23 14.56 166.88
2015-12-31 646.58 16.39 159.22
2015-09-30 624.68 16.20 153.47
2015-06-30 598.00 16.50 145.39
2015-03-31 573.38 15.52 139.01
2014-12-31 545.98 14.12 133.16
2014-09-30 520.67 13.47 127.25
2014-06-30 500.13 12.51 123.03
2014-03-31 479.26 12.04 117.88
2013-12-31 455.40 11.25 112.55
2013-09-30 430.66 10.55 106.65
2013-06-30 405.41 9.30 102.53
2013-03-31 378.96 8.61 96.57
2012-12-31 357.38 7.88 91.53
2012-09-30 336.39 6.65 87.06
2012-06-30 316.59 6.59 80.88
2012-03-31 297.46 5.38 77.12
2011-12-31 275.97 3.69 72.70
2011-09-30 264.54 3.50 69.97

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage used its assets less efficiently than the US Consumer Retailing industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's use of capital has not improved over the past 3 years (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Consumer Retailing industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 3/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 2x debt.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Company Filings, last reported 1 month ago.

NYSE:NGVC Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in USD Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-06-30 144.41 57.51 7.20
2018-03-31 142.24 57.18 8.07
2017-12-31 138.64 62.32 8.09
2017-09-30 133.88 61.82 6.52
2017-06-30 132.70 59.51 5.12
2017-03-31 132.15 58.40 4.23
2016-12-31 128.99 58.87 7.14
2016-09-30 126.73 59.34 4.02
2016-06-30 125.98 49.77 2.70
2016-03-31 123.24 38.80 5.60
2015-12-31 119.46 27.65 2.14
2015-09-30 115.49 27.61 2.92
2015-06-30 112.53 27.65 3.23
2015-03-31 108.08 25.23 7.24
2014-12-31 102.58 28.37 1.86
2014-09-30 98.85 21.98 5.11
2014-06-30 95.69 19.71 6.63
2014-03-31 92.18 19.76 7.91
2013-12-31 87.59 19.80 7.37
2013-09-30 84.53 19.82 9.28
2013-06-30 81.56 15.98 7.39
2013-03-31 78.63 16.17 11.33
2012-12-31 75.18 16.06 11.13
2012-09-30 72.95 5.81 18.07
2012-06-30 22.05 26.41 3.30
2012-03-31 19.51 26.33 3.45
2011-12-31 15.93 28.44 0.38
2011-09-30 15.93 28.44 0.38
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's level of debt (39.8%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
  • The level of debt compared to net worth has increased over the past 5 years (19.6% vs 39.8% today).
  • Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (61.4%, greater than 20% of total debt).
  • Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 3.2x coverage).
X
Financial health checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
0%
Current annual income from Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage dividends.
If you bought $2,000 of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage shares you are expected to receive $0 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Unable to evaluate Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers as the company has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to evaluate Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's dividend against the top 25% market benchmark as the company has not reported any payouts.
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
NYSE:NGVC Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United States of America Consumer Retailing Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 92 Stocks 2.4%
United States of America Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 5595 Stocks 3%
United States of America Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 0.8%
United States of America Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 1.5%
United States of America Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 3.8%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

NYSE:NGVC Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in $) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2020-09-30 0.00 1.00
2019-09-30 0.00 1.00
2018-09-30 0.00 1.00

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Unable to perform a dividend volatility check as Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has not reported any payouts.
  • Unable to verify if Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's dividend has been increasing as the company has not reported any payouts.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has not reported any payouts.
Future Payout to shareholders
  • No need to calculate the sustainability of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's dividends in 3 years as they are not expected to pay a notable for United States of America.
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 0.8%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has no CEO, or we have no data on them.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage management team in years:

12.2
Average Tenure
60
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Kemper Isely

TITLE
Chairman & Co-President
COMPENSATION
$620K
AGE
56
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Zephyr Isely

TITLE
Co-President & Director
COMPENSATION
$585K
AGE
69
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Heather Isely

TITLE
Executive VP
COMPENSATION
$537K
AGE
52
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Todd Dissinger

TITLE
Chief Financial Officer
AGE
60
TENURE
0.6 yrs

John Fischer

TITLE
VP & General Counsel
AGE
60
TENURE
3.8 yrs

Kevin Miller

TITLE
Vice President of Marketing
TENURE
2.6 yrs

David Colson

TITLE
Vice President & Treasurer
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage board of directors in years:

13.6
Average Tenure
60
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage board of directors is over 10 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced board.
Board of Directors

Kemper Isely

TITLE
Chairman & Co-President
COMPENSATION
$620K
AGE
56

Zephyr Isely

TITLE
Co-President & Director
COMPENSATION
$585K
AGE
69
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Heather Isely

TITLE
Executive VP
COMPENSATION
$537K
AGE
52
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Elizabeth Isely

TITLE
Executive VP & Director
COMPENSATION
$539K
AGE
63
TENURE
20.6 yrs

Mick Campbell

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$120K
AGE
73
TENURE
6.6 yrs

Richard Hallé

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$105K
AGE
53
TENURE
5.8 yrs

Ed Cerkovnik

TITLE
Independent Director
COMPENSATION
$110K
AGE
60
TENURE
5.1 yrs
Recent Insider Trading
  • Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.
Who owns this company?
X
Management checks
We assess Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap and profit (greater than 0.5% of the company's profit + 0.03% of market cap)? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

External News
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Simply Wall St News

Does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc's (NYSE:NGVC) Recent Track Record Look Strong?

When Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) released its most recent earnings update (31 March 2018), I compared it against two factor: its historical earnings track record, and the performance of its industry peers on average. … Understanding how Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage performed requires a benchmark rather than trying to assess a standalone number at one point in time. … Check out our latest analysis for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage?

Simply Wall St -

What Does Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc's (NYSE:NGVC) PE Ratio Tell You?

and want to better understand how you can grow your money by investing in Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC). … Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) is trading with a trailing P/E of 27.5x, which is higher than the industry average of 21.2x. … While this makes NGVC appear like a stock to avoid or sell if you own it, you might change your mind after I explain the assumptions behind the P/E ratio

Simply Wall St -

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC): Time For A Financial Health Check

Investors are always looking for growth in small-cap stocks like Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC), with a market cap of US$269.71m. … However, an important fact which most ignore is: how financially healthy is the business? … Consumer Retailing businesses operating in the environment facing headwinds from current disruption,.

Simply Wall St -

Have Investors Priced In Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc's (NYSE:NGVC) Growth?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC), a consumer retailing company based in United States,. … Let’s take a look at Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if the opportunity still exists? … Great news for investors – Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is still trading at a fairly cheap price.

Simply Wall St -

Is There An Opportunity With Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc's (NYSE:NGVC) 31% Undervaluation?

I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. … 5-year cash flow estimate 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $12.00 $16.00 $17.00 $20.00 $22.00 Source Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Present Value Discounted @ 8.59% $11.05 $13.57 $13.28 $14.38 $14.57 Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= $67 We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. … NYSE:NGVC Intrinsic Value May 31st 18 Important assumptions I'd like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows.

Simply Wall St -

With An ROE Of 7.32%, Can Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) Catch Up To The Industry?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) generated a below-average return on equity of 7.32% in the past 12 months, while its industry returned 12.34%. … See our latest analysis for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Peeling the layers of ROE – trisecting a company’s profitability Return on Equity (ROE) weighs Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage’s profit against the level of its shareholders’ equity. … Return on Equity = Net Profit ÷ Shareholders Equity ROE is measured against cost of equity in order to determine the efficiency of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage’s equity capital deployed.

Simply Wall St -

Is It Too Late To Buy Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC)?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC), a consumer retailing company based in United States, received a lot of attention from a substantial price increase on the NYSE over the last few months. … Great news for investors – Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage is still trading at a fairly cheap price. … Though in the case of Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the next few years, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis.

Simply Wall St -

Did Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc's (NYSE:NGVC) Recent Earnings Growth Beat The Trend?

Check out our latest analysis for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Could NGVC beat the long-term trend and outperform its industry? … Revenue growth over the past few years, has been positive, however, earnings growth has not been able to catch up, meaning Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has been growing its expenses by a lot more. … I recommend you continue to research Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage to get a better picture of the stock by looking at: Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for NGVC’s future growth?

Simply Wall St -

Should You Be Holding Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) Right Now?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage has a beta of 1.01, which means that the percentage change in its stock value will be higher than the entire market in times of booms and busts. … A high level of beta means investors face higher risk associated with potential gains and losses driven by market movements. … NGVC, with its market capitalisation of US$158.01M, is a small-cap stock, which generally have higher beta than similar companies of larger size.

Simply Wall St -

Should You Buy Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage Inc (NYSE:NGVC) At This PE Ratio?

Formula Price-Earnings Ratio = Price per share ÷ Earnings per share P/E Calculation for NGVC Price per share = $6.95 Earnings per share = $0.446 ∴ Price-Earnings Ratio = $6.95 ÷ $0.446 = 15.6x The P/E ratio isn’t a metric you view in isolation and only becomes useful when you compare it against other similar companies. … Since NGVC's P/E of 15.6x is lower than its industry peers (21x), it means that investors are paying less than they should for each dollar of NGVC's earnings. … For example, if you inadvertently compared lower risk firms with NGVC, then investors would naturally value NGVC at a lower price since it is a riskier investment.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Map
Description

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company’s stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food and private label products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products comprising cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of August 10, 2018, it operated 147 stores in 19 states. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

Details
Name: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
NGVC
Exchange: NYSE
Founded: 1955
$428,727,024
22,364,477
Website: http://www.naturalgrocers.com
Address: Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.
12612 West Alameda Parkway,
Lakewood,
Colorado, 80228,
United States
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
NYSE NGVC Common Stock New York Stock Exchange US USD 25. Jul 2012
DB N2V Common Stock Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 25. Jul 2012
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
3,013
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage employees.
Industry
Food Retail
Consumer Retailing
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2018/08/17 21:29
End of day share price update: 2018/08/17 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2018/08/08
Last earnings update: 2018/06/30
Last annual earnings update: 2017/09/30


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.