NasdaqGS:GO

Stock Analysis Report

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Market Cap

US$3.3b

Last Updated

2021/06/24 02:59 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a network of independently operated stores in the United States. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Solid track record with mediocre balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Grocery Outlet Holding's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GO is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GO's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

1.6%

GO

-1.1%

US Consumer Retailing

-0.1%

US Market


1 Year Return

-8.5%

GO

20.4%

US Consumer Retailing

39.0%

US Market

Return vs Industry: GO underperformed the US Consumer Retailing industry which returned 19.9% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GO underperformed the US Market which returned 39% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GOIndustryMarket
7 Day1.6%-1.1%-0.1%
30 Day2.8%-1.4%2.6%
90 Day-4.8%5.3%8.0%
1 Year-8.5%-8.5%23.0%20.4%41.2%39.0%
3 Yearn/a56.1%47.0%62.4%52.3%
5 Yearn/a85.3%66.3%132.3%106.2%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Grocery Outlet Holding's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Grocery Outlet Holding undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

18.1%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GO ($35.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($42.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GO is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.1x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (15.4x).

PE vs Market: GO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (29.1x) compared to the US market (19.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.5x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (2.7x).


Future Growth

How is Grocery Outlet Holding forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 11 analysts?

7.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GO's forecast earnings growth (7.8% per year) is above the savings rate (2%).

Earnings vs Market: GO's earnings (7.8% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (15.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GO's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (9.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GO's revenue (10.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.4%).


Past Performance

How has Grocery Outlet Holding performed over the past 5 years?

59.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GO's current net profit margins (3.6%) are higher than last year (1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GO's earnings have grown significantly by 59.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GO's earnings growth over the past year (319.6%) exceeds its 5-year average (59.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: GO earnings growth over the past year (319.6%) exceeded the Consumer Retailing industry 36.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: GO's Return on Equity (11.9%) is considered low.


Financial Health

How is Grocery Outlet Holding's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GO's short term assets ($364.7M) exceed its short term liabilities ($197.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: GO's short term assets ($364.7M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.4B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GO's debt to equity ratio (47.4%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if GO's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (31.1%).

Interest Coverage: GO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (6.3x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Dividend

What is Grocery Outlet Holding current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.4yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Eric Lindberg (49 yo)

2.42yrs

Tenure

US$5,452,023

Compensation

Mr. Eric J. Lindberg Jr., has been Chief Executive Officer of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Grocery Outlet Inc since January 1, 2019 and its Director since January 2006. Previously, from January 2006 t...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Eric's total compensation ($USD5.45M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.35M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Eric's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GO's management team is considered experienced (2.4 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GO's board of directors are considered experienced (4.5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 5.3%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
  • Ticker: GO
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1946
  • Industry: Food Retail
  • Sector: Consumer Retailing
  • Market Cap: US$3.322b
  • Shares outstanding: 95.71m
  • Website: https://www.groceryoutlet.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
  • 5650 Hollis Street
  • EmeryVille
  • California
  • 94608
  • United States

Listings


Biography

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a network of independently operated stores in the United States. The company’s stores offer products in various categories, such as dairy and deli, produce, f...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/06/24 02:59
End of Day Share Price2021/06/23 00:00
Earnings2021/04/03
Annual Earnings2021/01/02


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.