NasdaqGS:GO

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a chain of grocery stores in the United States. More Details


Snowflake Analysis

Acceptable track record with mediocre balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Grocery Outlet Holding's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GO has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-5.6%

GO

-0.9%

US Consumer Retailing

-1.5%

US Market


1 Year Return

0.1%

GO

10.4%

US Consumer Retailing

12.9%

US Market

Return vs Industry: GO underperformed the US Consumer Retailing industry which returned 10.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GO underperformed the US Market which returned 12.9% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GOIndustryMarket
7 Day-5.6%-0.9%-1.5%
30 Day-8.8%0.2%-1.8%
90 Day-0.3%9.2%6.6%
1 Year0.1%0.1%12.2%10.4%15.4%12.9%
3 Yearn/a59.6%50.6%39.6%30.2%
5 Yearn/a84.0%65.1%93.4%71.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Grocery Outlet Holding's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Grocery Outlet Holding undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

27.0%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GO ($37.85) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($51.83)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (52.6x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (14.9x).

PE vs Market: GO is poor value based on its PE Ratio (52.6x) compared to the US market (18.2x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: GO is poor value based on its PEG Ratio (3.6x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GO is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (4.2x) compared to the US Consumer Retailing industry average (1.7x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Grocery Outlet Holding forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

14.5%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GO's forecast earnings growth (14.5% per year) is above the savings rate (2.2%).

Earnings vs Market: GO's earnings (14.5% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the US market (23.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: GO's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: GO's revenue (9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (9.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GO's revenue (9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (11.6%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Grocery Outlet Holding performed over the past 5 years?

33.2%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GO has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: GO became profitable in the past.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GO's earnings have grown significantly by 33.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: GO has become profitable in the last year, making the earnings growth rate difficult to compare to its 5-year average.

Earnings vs Industry: GO has become profitable in the last year, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Consumer Retailing industry (39.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: GO's Return on Equity (7.7%) is considered low.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Grocery Outlet Holding's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GO's short term assets ($334.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($207.9M).

Long Term Liabilities: GO's short term assets ($334.8M) do not cover its long term liabilities ($1.3B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GO's debt to equity ratio (53.8%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if GO's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: GO's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (40.9%).

Interest Coverage: GO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (3.6x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Grocery Outlet Holding current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GO's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GO's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GO's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GO's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GO's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the US market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.7yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Eric Lindberg (49 yo)

1.67yrs

Tenure

US$4,006,275

Compensation

Mr. Eric J. Lindberg Jr., has been Chief Executive Officer of Grocery Outlet Holding Corp., and Grocery Outlet Inc since January 1, 2019 and its Director since January 2006. Previously, from January 2006 t ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Eric's total compensation ($USD4.01M) is about average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD5.63M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Insufficient data to compare Eric's compensation with company performance.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Eric Lindberg
CEO & Director1.67yrsUS$4.01m3.09%
$ 107.1m
Robert Sheedy
President1.67yrsUS$1.95m0%
$ 0
Charles Bracher
Chief Finance Officer8.08yrsUS$1.86m0.049%
$ 1.7m
Thomas McMahon
Executive VP0.083yrUS$1.25m0.10%
$ 3.5m
Pamela Burke
Chief Administrative Officer1.67yrsno data0.0099%
$ 342.5k
Joseph Pelland
Vice President of Investor Relationsno datano datano data
Layla Kasha
Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer3.17yrsno datano data
Andrea Bortner
Chief Human Resources Officer0.50yrno datano data
Jeff Oki
Senior Vice President of New Markets5.25yrsno datano data
Steven Wilson
Senior VP & Chief Purchasing Officer2.58yrsUS$942.03k0.14%
$ 4.7m
Brian McAndrews
Senior VP & Chief Store Development Officer2.17yrsno data0.0088%
$ 304.7k
Heather Mayo
Executive VP0.92yrno datano data

1.7yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: GO's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.7 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Eric Lindberg
CEO & Director1.67yrsUS$4.01m3.09%
$ 107.1m
Norman Matthews
Independent Director5.92yrsUS$213.02k0.099%
$ 3.4m
Erik Ragatz
Independent Chairman of the Board5.92yrsno datano data
Mary Haben
Independent Director0.83yrUS$13.36kno data
Thomas Herman
Independent Director16.67yrsUS$226.99k0.086%
$ 3.0m
Jeffrey York
Independent Director9.83yrsUS$210.54k0.13%
$ 4.5m
S. Read
Vice Chairman1.67yrsUS$3.83m2.52%
$ 87.3m
John Bachman
Independent Director0.83yrUS$13.70kno data
Kenneth Alterman
Independent Director9.67yrsUS$212.68k0.053%
$ 1.9m
Carey Jaros
Directorno datano datano data

5.9yrs

Average Tenure

64yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: GO's board of directors are considered experienced (5.9 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 3.7%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
  • Ticker: GO
  • Exchange: NasdaqGS
  • Founded: 1946
  • Industry: Food Retail
  • Sector: Consumer Retailing
  • Market Cap: US$3.467b
  • Shares outstanding: 91.60m
  • Website: https://www.groceryoutlet.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
  • 5650 Hollis Street
  • EmeryVille
  • California
  • 94608
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
GONasdaqGS (Nasdaq Global Select)YesVoting Common StockUSUSDJun 2019

Biography

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a chain of grocery stores in the United States. The company offers products in various categories, such as dairy and deli, produce, and fresh meat and seafood ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/09/22 06:16
End of Day Share Price2020/09/21 00:00
Earnings2020/06/27
Annual Earnings2019/12/28


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.