Grocery Outlet Holding Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Grocery Outlet Holding is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 105.2% and 4.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 116.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 6.1% in 3 years.
Key information
105.2%
Earnings growth rate
116.38%
EPS growth rate
| Consumer Retailing earnings growth | 8.9% |
| Revenue growth rate | 4.6% |
| Future return on equity | 6.09% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 15 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 05
GO: Store Closures And Legal Overhang Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding to $7.62. This reflects slightly lower assumptions for the discount rate and revenue growth, along with a minor change in profit margin and future P/E expectations.Narrative Update • Apr 20
GO: Store Closures And Legal Overhang Will Temper Food Desert Upside Potential
Analysts have adjusted their price view on Grocery Outlet Holding, with the implied fair value holding at about $7.62. Updates to the discount rate and future P/E assumptions reflect a more refined risk and earnings outlook rather than a major shift in fundamentals.Seeking Alpha • Apr 06
Grocery Outlet Holding: Downgrade To Sell On Weakened Fundamentals
Summary Grocery Outlet Holding is downgraded to sell as its value proposition and store growth strategy have deteriorated. GO's core treasure-hunt experience is compromised, with weakened value perception and reduced opportunistic product flow impacting customer engagement. Management's 2026 guidance signals no near-term recovery, with comparable sales guided between -2% and flat and Q1 comps at -2.5% to -1.5%. GO's valuation could fall further, potentially aligning with lower-multiple peers, implying up to 45% downside from current levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 06
GO: Store Optimization And New Openings Will Support Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding to about $10.31 from roughly $12.24. This reflects updated assumptions for slightly lower revenue growth and P/E expectations, which are partly offset by a higher projected profit margin.Narrative Update • Mar 23
GO: Virginia Food Desert Expansion Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts cut their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding from $13.65 to $7.62 as they now apply a higher discount rate, factor in more modest revenue growth and profit margins, and use a lower future P/E assumption in their models. What's in the News Class action lawsuit filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California alleges misleading statements about store expansion, growth, and restructuring plans, following Fiscal Year 2025 results that did not meet guidance and an earnings call discussing the closure of 36 underperforming stores (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Mar 08
GO: Future Store Openings Will Support Long-Term Upside Potential
Analysts now estimate Grocery Outlet Holding's fair value at about $12.24 per share, reduced from roughly $19.77. This change reflects updated views on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Feb 22
GO: Virginia Food Desert Expansion And Deep Discounts Will Support Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target for Grocery Outlet Holding from about $14.12 to around $13.65, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rate, modest revenue growth expectations, slightly adjusted profit margin forecasts, and a lower future P/E multiple. What's in the News Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.Narrative Update • Feb 07
GO: Virginia Expansion And Discount Model Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding slightly to align with an updated fair value of about $14.12. This reflects small tweaks to assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E.Analysis Article • Feb 04
These 4 Measures Indicate That Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Is Using Debt Extensively
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...
Narrative Update • Jan 24
GO: Future Expansion And Higher P/E Expectations Will Support Bullish Outlook
Analysts have kept their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding unchanged, reflecting updated assumptions that combine slightly higher revenue growth expectations with lower profit margin estimates and a higher future P/E multiple. What's in the News Grocery Outlet is entering Virginia with a new store in Falls Church, scheduled to open on February 12, 2026.Narrative Update • Jan 10
GO: Higher Future P/E Will Support Upside Despite Softer Guidance
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Grocery Outlet Holding slightly lower to about $14.35 per share from around $14.79, citing updated assumptions for discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E levels. What's in the News The company reported that, from June 29, 2025 to September 27, 2025, it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million, while completing a total of 4,371,397 shares repurchased for $90.7 million under the buyback first announced on November 9, 2021 (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Dec 26
GO: Higher Future Multiple Will Support Long-Term Upside Despite Softer Outlook
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding from approximately $17.15 to $14.79 per share. They cite slightly weaker expectations for revenue growth and profit margins, which are only partially offset by a higher projected future price-to-earnings multiple and marginally increased discount rate assumptions.Narrative Update • Dec 12
GO: Future Outlook Will Balance Moderated Guidance With Margin Improvement Expectations
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Grocery Outlet Holding by approximately $1.00 per share. This reflects a slightly higher discount rate and more conservative revenue growth expectations, partly offset by improved margin assumptions and a lower projected future P E multiple.Analysis Article • Nov 14
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s (NASDAQ:GO) Stock Retreats 28% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ( NASDAQ:GO ) share price has dived 28% in the...Narrative Update • Nov 01
GO: Rising Sales Outlook And Buybacks Will Support Earnings Momentum
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Grocery Outlet Holding, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates while maintaining steady projections for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.Narrative Update • Oct 17
Consumer Trends Will Constrain Margins But Spur Efficiency
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Grocery Outlet Holding, increasing it from $16.62 to $17.15. This change is based on minor updates to growth and valuation metrics.Narrative Update • Oct 03
Consumer Trends Will Constrain Margins But Spur Efficiency
Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Grocery Outlet Holding from $16.15 to $16.62. This reflects slight positive updates to fair value and profit margin projections.Analysis Article • Aug 07
Even With A 40% Surge, Cautious Investors Are Not Rewarding Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s (NASDAQ:GO) Performance Completely
NasdaqGS:GO 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Grocery Outlet Holding's Fair Values from the Community and select...Analysis Article • Jul 18
Here's Why Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Jun 29
We Like These Underlying Return On Capital Trends At Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO)
If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for...Analysis Article • May 14
Some Investors May Be Willing To Look Past Grocery Outlet Holding's (NASDAQ:GO) Soft Earnings
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s ( NASDAQ:GO ) earnings announcement last week didn't impress shareholders. However, our...Analysis Article • May 09
Earnings Update: Here's Why Analysts Just Lifted Their Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) Price Target To US$15.62
It's been a mediocre week for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ( NASDAQ:GO ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to...Analysis Article • Apr 25
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s (NASDAQ:GO) 30% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ( NASDAQ:GO ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced...Analysis Article • Apr 17
Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Seems To Be Using A Lot Of Debt
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Mar 26
Slowing Rates Of Return At Grocery Outlet Holding (NASDAQ:GO) Leave Little Room For Excitement
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Seeking Alpha • Mar 10
Grocery Outlet Q4: The New CEO Has A Lot Of Work Ahead Of Him
Summary Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s Q4 earnings showed a sales increase to $1.1B, but EPS missed estimates, and gross margins declined due to inventory shrinkage. The company's financial position is concerning, with a high debt load and an interest coverage ratio below the desired threshold. Management's 2025 outlook disappointed investors, leading to a significant decline in share price and a cautious approach to future performance. I recommend a hold rating, as the new CEO has much to prove, and operational improvements are needed before considering a buy. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Feb 28
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
One of the biggest stories of last week was how Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ( NASDAQ:GO ) shares plunged 26% in the...Analysis Article • Feb 27
More Unpleasant Surprises Could Be In Store For Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.'s (NASDAQ:GO) Shares After Tumbling 35%
To the annoyance of some shareholders, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. ( NASDAQ:GO ) shares are down a considerable 35% in...Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 5,139 | 32 | N/A | 178 | 6 |
| 12/31/2027 | 4,875 | 45 | 24 | 335 | 14 |
| 12/31/2026 | 4,660 | -67 | -4 | 222 | 14 |
| 4/4/2026 | 4,730 | -382 | 4 | 216 | N/A |
| 1/3/2026 | 4,689 | -225 | 2 | 222 | N/A |
| 9/27/2025 | 4,571 | -4 | -52 | 189 | N/A |
| 6/28/2025 | 4,511 | 8 | -51 | 195 | N/A |
| 3/29/2025 | 4,460 | 17 | -60 | 163 | N/A |
| 12/28/2024 | 4,372 | 39 | -95 | 112 | N/A |
| 9/28/2024 | 4,263 | 51 | -102 | 100 | N/A |
| 6/29/2024 | 4,159 | 54 | -10 | 196 | N/A |
| 3/30/2024 | 4,041 | 65 | 23 | 224 | N/A |
| 12/30/2023 | 3,969 | 79 | 111 | 303 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 3,910 | 81 | 142 | 322 | N/A |
| 7/1/2023 | 3,825 | 72 | 97 | 258 | N/A |
| 4/1/2023 | 3,712 | 67 | 84 | 237 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 3,578 | 65 | 38 | 186 | N/A |
| 10/1/2022 | 3,430 | 56 | 27 | 164 | N/A |
| 7/2/2022 | 3,281 | 55 | 35 | 165 | N/A |
| 4/2/2022 | 3,159 | 55 | 45 | 176 | N/A |
| 1/1/2022 | 3,080 | 62 | 32 | 166 | N/A |
| 10/2/2021 | 3,104 | 80 | 88 | 224 | N/A |
| 7/3/2021 | 3,099 | 103 | 30 | 176 | N/A |
| 4/3/2021 | 3,127 | 113 | 1 | 140 | N/A |
| 1/2/2021 | 3,135 | 107 | 50 | 181 | N/A |
| 9/26/2020 | 2,983 | 92 | 12 | 128 | N/A |
| 6/27/2020 | 2,872 | 64 | 72 | 183 | N/A |
| 3/28/2020 | 2,714 | 24 | N/A | 178 | N/A |
| 12/28/2019 | 2,560 | 15 | N/A | 133 | N/A |
| 9/28/2019 | 2,489 | 1 | N/A | 125 | N/A |
| 6/29/2019 | 2,414 | -4 | N/A | 90 | N/A |
| 3/30/2019 | 2,343 | 14 | N/A | 97 | N/A |
| 12/29/2018 | 2,288 | 16 | N/A | 106 | N/A |
| 12/30/2017 | 2,075 | 21 | N/A | 85 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,832 | 10 | N/A | 71 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: GO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: GO is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: GO is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: GO's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the US market (11.7% per year).
High Growth Revenue: GO's revenue (4.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: GO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (6.1%).
Discover growth companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/18 23:13 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/18 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/04/04 |
| Annual Earnings | 2026/01/03 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
|
| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. is covered by 15 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Brian McNamara | Berenberg |
| Robert Ohmes | BofA Global Research |
| Jeremy Hamblin | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |