Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

One of the biggest stories of last week was how Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:GO) shares plunged 26% in the week since its latest annual results, closing yesterday at US$11.83. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of US$4.4b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 17% to hit US$0.40 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Grocery Outlet Holding

Following the latest results, Grocery Outlet Holding's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$4.74b in 2025. This would be a notable 8.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 15% to US$0.34 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.64 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 18% to US$13.93, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grocery Outlet Holding at US$18.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Grocery Outlet Holding'shistorical trends, as the 8.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 9.7% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that Grocery Outlet Holding is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Grocery Outlet Holding. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Grocery Outlet Holding analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Grocery Outlet Holding that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.