Why Dollar General (DG) Is Up 14.6% After Raising 2025 Guidance and Boosting Its Dividend

• Dollar General reported third-quarter 2025 sales of US$10,649.45 million and net income of US$282.66 million, raised its full-year earnings and net sales guidance, and its board declared a quarterly cash dividend of US$0.59 per share payable on or before January 20, 2026.
• The earnings beat was underpinned by higher customer traffic, margin improvement, and progress on store expansion and remodels, reinforcing Dollar General’s emphasis on operational efficiency and value-focused merchandising.
• Next, we’ll examine how this upgraded earnings guidance reshapes Dollar General’s existing investment narrative and future growth expectations.

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Dollar General Investment Narrative Recap

To own Dollar General, you need to believe its small‑box, value format can keep attracting cost‑conscious shoppers even as competition intensifies and store expansion accelerates. The latest earnings beat and higher guidance support the near term catalyst of improving margins and traffic, while the biggest current risk remains execution on thousands of remodels and new projects without eroding same‑store productivity. The recent overbought technical signals do not materially change that core risk‑reward tension.

The most relevant update here is Dollar General’s raised full year outlook to diluted EPS of US$6.30 to US$6.50 and net sales growth of about 4.7% to 4.9%. That stronger guidance, backed by Q3 margin gains and higher customer traffic, underpins the turnaround and remodel catalyst but also raises the bar for future performance as the company pursues nearly 4,885 real estate projects in fiscal 2026.

Yet even with upgraded guidance and a rising share price, investors should be aware of the risk that aggressive expansion could...

Read the full narrative on Dollar General (it's free!)

Dollar General's narrative projects $46.9 billion revenue and $1.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.1% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.5 billion earnings increase from $1.2 billion today.

Uncover how Dollar General's forecasts yield a $122.68 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate Dollar General’s fair value between US$93.54 and US$170.69, highlighting how far opinions can diverge. When you set those views against the company’s heavy reliance on rural and small town markets, it becomes even more important to weigh several perspectives on how sustainable that core customer base really is.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Dollar General - why the stock might be worth as much as 36% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Dollar General Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Dollar General research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Dollar General research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Dollar General's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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