Some Confidence Is Lacking In NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) As Shares Slide 27%

The NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 41% share price drop.

In spite of the heavy fall in price, there still wouldn't be many who think NIKE's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.8x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 16x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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NIKE hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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Is There Some Growth For NIKE?

NIKE's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. The last three years don't look nice either as the company has shrunk EPS by 21% in aggregate. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 5.4% per year during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 11% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that NIKE's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Bottom Line On NIKE's P/E

Following NIKE's share price tumble, its P/E is now hanging on to the median market P/E. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that NIKE currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. Our free balance sheet analysis for NIKE with six simple checks will allow you to discover any risks that could be an issue.

You might be able to find a better investment than NIKE. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.