NIKE, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

The quarterly results for NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were US$12b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.70, an impressive 35% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for NIKE

After the latest results, the consensus from NIKE's 38 analysts is for revenues of US$47.6b in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 4.9% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to crater 21% to US$2.81 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$48.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.06 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$91.23 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NIKE at US$120 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$57.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.9% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that NIKE's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for NIKE going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of NIKE's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.