Earnings Beat: Deckers Outdoor Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$965m, some 7.1% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.93, 37% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Deckers Outdoor after the latest results.

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After the latest results, the 24 analysts covering Deckers Outdoor are now predicting revenues of US$5.45b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 4.8% to US$6.31 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$5.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.07 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Deckers Outdoor

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$128, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Deckers Outdoor, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$158 and the most bearish at US$97.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Deckers Outdoor's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Deckers Outdoor is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Deckers Outdoor's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Deckers Outdoor analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Deckers Outdoor Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.