Waste Management (WM): Assessing Valuation After Major Insider Stock Sales by Executives

When company leaders make big moves with their own shares, investors tend to notice. That is exactly what happened with Waste Management (WM) this year, as several insiders, including the CEO, sold sizable portions of their stock holdings, totaling millions of dollars. These transactions have drawn plenty of attention, since insider activity often signals how leaders view their company’s prospects. While there have not been further sales in recent months, many investors are now weighing whether this is signaling a shift in management’s confidence or just a case of personal portfolio management by key executives.

Stepping back, Waste Management’s stock performance tells a mixed story. Shares have climbed about 7% over the past year and are up nearly 9% since the start of the year, showing steady progress. However, momentum has fizzled more recently, with the stock down about 4% over the past quarter. This pause follows several positive company events, such as their cybersecurity presentation at Fal.Con 2025, but it is hard not to see recent insider sales looming over the short-term narrative.

After a year of strong returns and this wave of executive selling, is Waste Management now trading below its true value, or has the market already priced in all the growth ahead?

Most Popular Narrative: 15% Undervalued

The dominant narrative sees Waste Management as undervalued, pricing in moderate but resilient growth supported by investments in technology and sustainability. Analysts anticipate both top-line expansion and improved profit margins over the next few years.

“The company’s strategic investments in sustainability, particularly in the areas of recycling and renewable energy, are showing strong, high-return growth, which could drive future revenue increases. The integration and optimization of WM Healthcare Solutions are on track to deliver significant synergies, anticipated to reach $250 million annually by 2027, positively impacting earnings.”

Eager to understand how Waste Management’s push into automation and renewables reshapes its earnings outlook? This narrative bets big on future margin gains and bold assumptions, especially around how new business lines and operational efficiency play into valuation. Discover what really powers this bullish target. The crucial details might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $257.3 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if tax credits for alternative fuels expire or new regulations increase costs, analysts warn that Waste Management’s margin upside could quickly vanish.

Find out about the key risks to this Waste Management narrative.

Another View: What About the SWS DCF Model?

While the analyst consensus sees upside, our DCF model suggests Waste Management is actually trading above its fair value right now. Could this mean the market is placing a premium on future growth, or is optimism getting ahead of itself?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding Waste Management to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers, you can quickly shape your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Waste Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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