Waste Management Valuation

Is WM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WM ($205.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($206.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WM is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WM?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

WM key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA16.7x
PEG Ratio3.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40.8x
RSG Republic Services
34.4x7.6%US$59.5b
WCN Waste Connections
55.6x16.9%US$42.4b
ROL Rollins
47.3x10.5%US$20.6b
VLTO Veralto
26.1x4.3%US$21.9b
WM Waste Management
35.7x10.9%US$82.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the peer average (40.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Commercial Services Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.0%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a15.0%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the US Commercial Services industry average (26.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.7x
Fair PE Ratio37.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$205.07
US$212.95
+3.8%
9.2%US$256.00US$159.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$212.91
US$209.91
-1.4%
8.5%US$256.00US$159.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$205.79
US$207.14
+0.7%
8.0%US$230.00US$159.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$188.42
US$183.33
-2.7%
8.0%US$215.00US$151.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$179.10
US$181.52
+1.4%
7.5%US$203.00US$151.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$173.80
US$179.48
+3.3%
7.7%US$203.00US$151.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$164.04
US$179.60
+9.5%
8.0%US$203.00US$149.00n/a20
Oct ’24US$152.44
US$178.54
+17.1%
7.5%US$202.00US$149.00n/a20
Sep ’24US$157.01
US$177.83
+13.3%
7.6%US$202.00US$149.00n/a19
Aug ’24US$162.51
US$177.83
+9.4%
7.6%US$202.00US$149.00n/a19
Jul ’24US$173.42
US$175.30
+1.1%
7.9%US$200.00US$145.00n/a20
Jun ’24US$162.80
US$174.95
+7.5%
8.1%US$200.00US$145.00n/a19
May ’24US$166.79
US$173.95
+4.3%
8.0%US$200.00US$145.00n/a19
Apr ’24US$163.17
US$168.39
+3.2%
9.2%US$200.00US$138.00US$212.9118
Mar ’24US$148.83
US$166.53
+11.9%
8.4%US$196.00US$138.00US$205.7917
Feb ’24US$154.41
US$167.44
+8.4%
9.3%US$196.00US$129.00US$188.4216
Jan ’24US$156.88
US$171.71
+9.5%
8.7%US$196.00US$129.00US$179.1017
Dec ’23US$167.82
US$172.06
+2.5%
8.9%US$196.00US$129.00US$173.8017
Nov ’23US$156.52
US$172.06
+9.9%
8.9%US$196.00US$129.00US$164.0417
Oct ’23US$160.21
US$171.88
+7.3%
8.1%US$198.00US$128.00US$152.4417
Sep ’23US$170.04
US$170.29
+0.1%
8.1%US$198.00US$128.00US$157.0117
Aug ’23US$163.36
US$170.29
+4.2%
8.1%US$198.00US$128.00US$162.5117
Jul ’23US$155.65
US$170.94
+9.8%
9.1%US$198.00US$124.00US$173.4216
Jun ’23US$158.53
US$171.25
+8.0%
9.0%US$198.00US$124.00US$162.8016
May ’23US$164.44
US$170.44
+3.6%
9.6%US$198.00US$121.00US$166.7916
Apr ’23US$159.81
US$161.94
+1.3%
9.2%US$183.00US$121.00US$163.1716

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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