Waste Management Valuation

Is WM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WM ($218.78) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($282.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WM?

Key metric: As WM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WM. This is calculated by dividing WM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio33.2x
EarningsUS$2.64b
Market CapUS$87.92b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average42.1x
RSG Republic Services
33.8x6.7%US$66.0b
WCN Waste Connections
51.2x14.9%US$48.4b
VLTO Veralto
32.3x9.1%US$25.7b
ROL Rollins
51x11.6%US$24.0b
WM Waste Management
33.2x10.9%US$87.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.2x) compared to the peer average (42.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Commercial Services Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PGTK Pacific Green Technologies
3.9xn/aUS$31.27m
OMEX Odyssey Marine Exploration
0.7xn/aUS$8.30m
DGWR Deep Green Waste & Recycling
0.9xn/aUS$557.97k
IGOT Fomo Worldwide
0.00007xn/aUS$112.00
No more companies available in this PE range
WM 33.2xIndustry Avg. 31.1xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.2x) compared to the US Commercial Services industry average (31.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio33.2x
Fair PE Ratio36.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (36.5x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$218.78
US$230.45
+5.3%
7.3%US$255.00US$181.00n/a20
Nov ’25US$213.99
US$229.67
+7.3%
7.6%US$255.00US$174.00n/a21
Oct ’25US$207.93
US$222.71
+7.1%
8.1%US$251.00US$170.00n/a20
Sep ’25US$212.04
US$222.71
+5.0%
8.1%US$251.00US$170.00n/a20
Aug ’25US$206.07
US$222.71
+8.1%
8.1%US$251.00US$170.00n/a20
Jul ’25US$209.36
US$224.01
+7.0%
8.9%US$259.00US$164.00n/a20
Jun ’25US$210.73
US$224.06
+6.3%
9.1%US$259.00US$161.00n/a20
May ’25US$206.76
US$222.43
+7.6%
8.9%US$259.00US$161.00n/a21
Apr ’25US$212.91
US$209.91
-1.4%
8.5%US$256.00US$159.00n/a21
Mar ’25US$205.79
US$207.14
+0.7%
8.0%US$230.00US$159.00n/a22
Feb ’25US$188.42
US$183.33
-2.7%
8.0%US$215.00US$151.00n/a21
Jan ’25US$179.10
US$181.52
+1.4%
7.5%US$203.00US$151.00n/a21
Dec ’24US$173.80
US$179.48
+3.3%
7.7%US$203.00US$151.00n/a21
Nov ’24US$164.04
US$179.60
+9.5%
8.0%US$203.00US$149.00US$213.9920
Oct ’24US$152.44
US$178.54
+17.1%
7.5%US$202.00US$149.00US$207.9320
Sep ’24US$157.01
US$177.83
+13.3%
7.6%US$202.00US$149.00US$212.0419
Aug ’24US$162.51
US$177.83
+9.4%
7.6%US$202.00US$149.00US$206.0719
Jul ’24US$173.42
US$175.30
+1.1%
7.9%US$200.00US$145.00US$209.3620
Jun ’24US$162.80
US$174.95
+7.5%
8.1%US$200.00US$145.00US$210.7319
May ’24US$166.79
US$173.95
+4.3%
8.0%US$200.00US$145.00US$206.7619
Apr ’24US$163.17
US$168.39
+3.2%
9.2%US$200.00US$138.00US$212.9118
Mar ’24US$148.83
US$166.53
+11.9%
8.4%US$196.00US$138.00US$205.7917
Feb ’24US$154.41
US$167.44
+8.4%
9.3%US$196.00US$129.00US$188.4216
Jan ’24US$156.88
US$171.71
+9.5%
8.7%US$196.00US$129.00US$179.1017
Dec ’23US$167.82
US$172.06
+2.5%
8.9%US$196.00US$129.00US$173.8017
Nov ’23US$156.52
US$172.06
+9.9%
8.9%US$196.00US$129.00US$164.0417

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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