Waste Connections Valuation

Is WCN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WCN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WCN ($165.47) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($167.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WCN is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WCN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

WCN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA20.9x
PEG Ratio3.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WCN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WCN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.2x
RSG Republic Services
32.7x7.5%US$58.8b
ROL Rollins
50.7x11.3%US$22.4b
WM Waste Management
33.8x9.8%US$83.8b
VLTO Veralto
31.6x6.6%US$25.2b
WCN Waste Connections
53.7x16.9%US$42.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.7x) compared to the peer average (41.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WCN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Commercial Services Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.2%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a14.2%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.7x) compared to the US Commercial Services industry average (26.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WCN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WCN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio53.7x
Fair PE Ratio35.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WCN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (53.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.6x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WCN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$165.47
US$184.48
+11.5%
7.9%US$217.00US$135.00n/a20
May ’25US$162.06
US$184.24
+13.7%
8.1%US$217.00US$135.00n/a19
Apr ’25US$170.38
US$178.50
+4.8%
10.0%US$217.00US$135.00n/a18
Mar ’25US$165.40
US$176.26
+6.6%
8.5%US$195.00US$135.00n/a19
Feb ’25US$158.40
US$161.36
+1.9%
7.3%US$177.00US$128.00n/a18
Jan ’25US$149.27
US$158.08
+5.9%
8.2%US$175.00US$124.00n/a18
Dec ’24US$139.63
US$155.22
+11.2%
8.2%US$175.00US$121.00n/a18
Nov ’24US$129.75
US$154.44
+19.0%
8.0%US$171.00US$121.00n/a18
Oct ’24US$134.30
US$157.06
+16.9%
9.3%US$175.00US$118.00n/a18
Sep ’24US$139.29
US$156.47
+12.3%
9.2%US$175.00US$118.00n/a19
Aug ’24US$142.88
US$155.44
+8.8%
6.9%US$170.00US$120.00n/a18
Jul ’24US$142.93
US$154.83
+8.3%
6.9%US$170.00US$120.00n/a18
Jun ’24US$137.59
US$154.94
+12.6%
7.1%US$170.00US$120.00n/a17
May ’24US$139.15
US$154.33
+10.9%
7.1%US$170.00US$120.00US$162.0618
Apr ’24US$139.07
US$151.06
+8.6%
10.2%US$170.00US$107.00US$170.3817
Mar ’24US$133.44
US$150.50
+12.8%
10.5%US$170.00US$107.00US$165.4016
Feb ’24US$133.02
US$149.38
+12.3%
11.5%US$170.00US$98.00US$158.4016
Jan ’24US$132.56
US$150.76
+13.7%
11.3%US$170.00US$98.00US$149.2717
Dec ’23US$143.95
US$150.35
+4.4%
10.4%US$170.00US$98.00US$139.6317
Nov ’23US$130.90
US$147.24
+12.5%
10.8%US$165.00US$98.00US$129.7517
Oct ’23US$135.13
US$150.19
+11.1%
10.6%US$165.00US$97.00US$134.3016
Sep ’23US$139.42
US$147.06
+5.5%
11.1%US$165.00US$92.00US$139.2917
Aug ’23US$132.15
US$144.11
+9.1%
11.6%US$180.00US$92.00US$142.8818
Jul ’23US$125.32
US$147.22
+17.5%
11.6%US$180.00US$92.00US$142.9318
Jun ’23US$127.41
US$147.89
+16.1%
11.5%US$180.00US$92.00US$137.5918
May ’23US$137.97
US$149.33
+8.2%
11.9%US$180.00US$90.00US$139.1518

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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