Results: TransUnion Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of US$1.1b, some 2.5% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$0.75, 56% ahead of expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from TransUnion's 19 analysts is for revenues of US$4.41b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 3.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 19% to US$2.23. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.10 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for TransUnion

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$105, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values TransUnion at US$130 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$84.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the TransUnion's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that TransUnion's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than TransUnion.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around TransUnion's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TransUnion going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for TransUnion you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.