US$18.57 - That's What Analysts Think BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Is Worth After These Results

BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$102m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$2.66 some 32% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for BlackSky Technology

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for BlackSky Technology from nine analysts is for revenues of US$132.8m in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 30% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 22% to US$1.46. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$133.6m and US$1.21 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on BlackSky Technology even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a massive increase in per-share losses.

Although the analysts are now forecasting higher losses, the average price target rose 10% to 16.85714, which could indicate that these losses are expected to be "one-off", or are not anticipated to have a longer-term impact on the business. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values BlackSky Technology at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of BlackSky Technology'shistorical trends, as the 30% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 37% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that BlackSky Technology is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at BlackSky Technology. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for BlackSky Technology going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for BlackSky Technology (of which 2 don't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.