BlackSky Technology Future Growth
Future criteria checks 5/6
BlackSky Technology is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 74.1% and 24.1% per annum respectively while EPS is expected to grow by 76.6% per annum.
Key information
74.1%
Earnings growth rate
76.64%
EPS growth rate
| Professional Services earnings growth | 15.5% |
| Revenue growth rate | 24.1% |
| Future return on equity | n/a |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 08 May 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
Seeking Alpha • May 10
BlackSky: Another Lackluster Quarter, Shares Look Dramatically Overvalued
Summary BlackSky Technology reported a disappointing Q1, with revenues down 29.5% year-over-year and EPS badly missing expectations. BKSY raised full-year midpoint revenue guidance to $140 million, implying 31% growth, but so far that optimism isn't reflected in results. The stock trades at 16x EV/Sales despite stagnant revenues, leaving valuation highly vulnerable if sector momentum fades or the company misses guidance. Even if the company hits its ambitious full-year guide, shares still appear to be overvalued. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • May 04
BKSY: Overvaluation Risk Will Hinge On Domestic Volume Recovery Through 2026
Analysts have raised their average price target on BlackSky stock to around $27, up from about $23. They cited stronger Q4 execution, steady international demand and potential benefits from growing interest in low cost, scalable defense and surveillance solutions.
Narrative Update • Apr 20
BKSY: Defense Demand And Gen 3 Ramp Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts have nudged the average BlackSky Technology price target higher by $4 to $27, pointing to stronger Q4 execution, resilient international demand, and a view that current outlooks still include some conservatism around domestic volume recovery and the Gen-3 constellation ramp. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research reflects a constructive tone around BlackSky Technology, with several bullish analysts revisiting their valuation work following the latest Q4 and full-year updates.Narrative Update • Apr 05
BKSY: Rising Defense And Counter Drone Demand Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have raised their price target on BlackSky Technology to $27, citing stronger Q4 execution, resilient international demand, and a supportive 2026 outlook, along with ongoing interest in the company as a secondary play on growing defense and counter drone needs. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts are pointing to stronger Q4 execution, expanding international demand, and progress on the Gen 3 constellation as key reasons for their more constructive stance on BlackSky Technology.Narrative Update • Mar 21
BKSY: International Defense Demand And 2026 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Outlook
Analysts now estimate BlackSky’s fair value at approximately $27.63 per share, up from about $27.29, citing recent price target revisions in the $23 to $27 range and continued interest in its position as a secondary beneficiary of evolving defense and intelligence demand. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates around BlackSky focus on how the company is executing against demand for defense and intelligence data, how that execution lines up with current valuation targets, and what could support or pressure those targets over the next few years.Narrative Update • Mar 07
BKSY: Rising Defense Demand And Gen 3 Rollout Will Drive Long Term Upside
Narrative Update: BlackSky Technology The updated analyst price target for BlackSky Technology reflects a modest fair value adjustment, alongside higher projected profit margins and a lower, though still very large, forward P/E multiple of about 132x. Analysts point to solid Q4 execution, ongoing international demand, and potential benefits from rising interest in lower cost defense and intelligence solutions.Narrative Update • Feb 21
BKSY: New Gen 3 Defense Contracts Will Support Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target framework for BlackSky Technology, reflecting small parameter updates to the discount rate, revenue growth outlook, profit margin assumptions, and a lower future P/E multiple. Together, these changes point to a slightly different risk and return balance around the current fair value estimate of about $40.08 per share.
Narrative Update • Feb 07
BKSY: New Equity Offering And Gen 3 Rollout Will Restrain Returns
Analysts have reiterated a fair value estimate of $20.00 for BlackSky Technology, citing slightly adjusted assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E that together fine tune, rather than overhaul, their outlook on the stock. What's in the News BlackSky secured multiple Gen-3 Assured services contracts with a new international defense customer, described as totaling seven figures and focused on time sensitive tactical ISR needs and space based monitoring integrated into existing intelligence workflows (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Jan 28
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) 39% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 39% after a shaky period...Narrative Update • Jan 23
BKSY: Gradual Gen 3 Rollout Will Pressure Forward Returns
Narrative Update Overview Analysts now place BlackSky Technology's fair value at US$20.00, reduced from US$24.00. They cite updated revenue and EBITDA estimates that reflect a more gradual Gen-3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty.Narrative Update • Jan 09
BKSY: Gradual Gen 3 Rollout Will Support Long Term Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their price target on BlackSky Technology to US$20 from US$24, citing revised expectations for a more gradual Gen-3 constellation rollout and continued budget uncertainty, which also leads them to lower revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2026 and 2027. Analyst Commentary Recent commentary around BlackSky reflects a mix of caution on timing and continued interest in the long term potential of the business.Narrative Update • Dec 26
BKSY: Future Gen 3 Rollout Will Drive Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on BlackSky Technology, trimming fair value estimates by about $1.25 per share to approximately $40.59. They are factoring in a slower Gen 3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty, which temper near term revenue and EBITDA expectations.Analysis Article • Dec 14
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) P/S Is Still On The Mark Following 38% Share Price Bounce
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 38% in...Narrative Update • Dec 12
BKSY: Future Contract Wins Will Drive Confidence In Long Term Upside
Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on BlackSky Technology to about $41.84 per share, down from $31.00, citing more conservative revenue and EBITDA expectations tied to a slower Gen-3 constellation rollout and ongoing budget uncertainty. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts acknowledge the trimmed price target and reduced forward estimates but continue to see long term strategic value in BlackSky's differentiated real time geospatial intelligence platform.Narrative Update • Oct 24
Gen-3 Satellite Advancements Will Drive International Expansion And Defense Opportunities
Analysts have slightly raised their price target for BlackSky Technology to $27.29 per share, citing modest adjustments to the discount rate and profit margin projections. They have maintained an optimistic outlook on revenue growth.Analysis Article • Oct 18
BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Looks Just Right With A 27% Price Jump
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 27% after a shaky period...Narrative Update • Oct 10
Gen-3 Satellite And Spectra Analytics Will Expand International Markets
Analysts have raised their price target for BlackSky Technology from $25.29 to $27.29, citing strong year-to-date performance and a shift toward a more balanced risk/reward outlook, even with recent valuation concerns. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates have provided a nuanced view on BlackSky Technology following its substantial year-to-date rally.Narrative Update • Sep 13
Gen-3 Satellite And Spectra Analytics Will Expand International Markets
Driven by major contract wins, strong government demand, and clear technology differentiation—although tempered by valuation concerns after significant share price gains—analysts have raised BlackSky Technology’s consensus price target modestly from $24.38 to $25.29. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts highlight BlackSky's selection for the $200M Luno B contract and the $1.02B EOCL contract as key drivers of future revenue and market validation.Analysis Article • Aug 19
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) Stock Retreats 26% But Revenues Haven't Escaped The Attention Of Investors
NYSE:BKSY 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore BlackSky Technology's Fair Values from the Community and select...Analysis Article • Jul 04
Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) 90% Share Price Surge
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 90% gain in the last month...Analysis Article • May 06
Market Participants Recognise BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) Revenues Pushing Shares 27% Higher
Those holding BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 27% in...
New Narrative • Mar 30
Gen-3 Satellite Rollout Will Expand Global Constellation
The Gen-3 satellite launch and expanded government contracts drive demand, revenue, and future growth, enhancing BlackSky's competitive advantage.Seeking Alpha • Mar 25
BlackSky: Strong Growth And Improving Margins
Summary BlackSky has successfully launched its first Gen-3 satellite, which is now providing high-resolution imagery. BlackSky also continues to have considerable commercial success, with the company's backlog providing support for expected strong growth in 2025. BlackSky's margins continue to improve with scale, although CapEx remains elevated, and an accounting change will weigh on margins in the near-term. BlackSky's valuation appears low given current growth expectations and the fact the company should transition to profitability over the next 1–2 years. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Mar 11
With A 44% Price Drop For BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) You'll Still Get What You Pay For
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough...Analysis Article • Mar 09
US$18.57 - That's What Analysts Think BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Is Worth After These Results
BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great...Seeking Alpha • Feb 11
BlackSky Technology: Still Light Years From GAAP Profitability
Summary The space sector is booming, and traders are taking a look at smaller-capitalization space names like BlackSky Technology Inc. BlackSky's focus on geospatial intelligence is interesting, but commercial adoption has remained fairly modest. Despite improved cost management, BlackSky is still struggling to reach profitability, and it has to keep spending significant sums on capital expenditures. Given the recent BKSY stock rally and weak quarterly earnings results, it's prudent to wait for a potentially cheaper entry point. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Jan 25
BlackSky Technology Inc. (NYSE:BKSY) Looks Just Right With A 36% Price Jump
Despite an already strong run, BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 36...Analysis Article • Jan 13
Does BlackSky Technology (NYSE:BKSY) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...Seeking Alpha • Nov 19
BlackSky: Next-Gen Satellites Bring Opportunities And Risks
Summary BlackSky's Q3 results were weak, which the company attributed to contract timing. As a result, full-year guidance remains unchanged. While Q3 earnings caused BlackSky's stock to drop, its share price has since recovered, creating pressure to perform in the coming quarters. The satellite imagery market is becoming more competitive, particularly as next-gen satellites with higher-resolution, lower latency and hyperspectral capabilities are introduced. BlackSky's valuation is reasonable, but the company will need far greater scale to generate the high margins investors expect. This could be difficult with increasing competition. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaAnalysis Article • Nov 07
BlackSky Technology Inc.'s (NYSE:BKSY) 36% Jump Shows Its Popularity With Investors
Those holding BlackSky Technology Inc. ( NYSE:BKSY ) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 36% in...Seeking Alpha • Oct 03
BlackSky Technology: Progress Continues
Summary BlackSky Technology Inc. has shown some significant progress since my last article 10 months ago, warranting a fresh evaluation of its investment potential. The company continues to narrow its operating losses as it continues to see solid revenue growth. BlackSky also recently did a reverse stock split, addressed its near/medium term funding needs, and got an upgrade from Oppenheimer. An updated analysis around BlackSky Technology, Inc. follows in the paragraphs below. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaEarnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 234 | -2 | 17 | 53 | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 179 | -25 | -22 | 38 | 8 |
| 12/31/2026 | 136 | -54 | -42 | -3 | 9 |
| 3/31/2026 | 98 | -87 | -111 | -58 | N/A |
| 12/31/2025 | 107 | -70 | -75 | -28 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 102 | -89 | -64 | -21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 105 | -86 | -22 | 19 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 107 | -54 | -20 | 25 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 102 | -57 | -57 | -6 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 107 | -42 | -55 | -6 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 106 | -28 | -50 | -7 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 100 | -52 | -47 | -5 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 94 | -54 | -61 | -17 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 78 | -65 | -92 | -21 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 74 | -79 | -99 | -32 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 70 | -72 | -95 | -48 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 65 | -75 | -89 | -44 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 57 | -54 | -64 | -55 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 48 | -87 | -67 | -61 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 41 | -95 | -71 | -56 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 34 | -244 | -55 | -54 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 29 | -260 | -44 | -43 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 26 | -227 | -31 | -31 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 24 | -202 | -25 | -24 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 21 | -48 | -32 | -32 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 14 | -60 | N/A | -26 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: BKSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (3.5%).
Earnings vs Market: BKSY is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.
High Growth Earnings: BKSY is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: BKSY's revenue (24.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (11.6% per year).
High Growth Revenue: BKSY's revenue (24.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: Insufficient data to determine if BKSY's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 21:25 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
BlackSky Technology Inc. is covered by 10 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Austin Moeller | Canaccord Genuity |
| Jeffrey Van Rhee | Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC |
| Xin Yu | Deutsche Bank |