Rockwell Automation (ROK) Valuation After Cloud-Native MES Expansion and Fresh Analyst Upgrades

Rockwell Automation (ROK) just doubled down on its digital manufacturing ambitions, rolling out an elastic, cloud native MES platform that tightly links factory floor systems with IT, and analysts are clearly taking notice.

See our latest analysis for Rockwell Automation.

The stock is reflecting that optimism, with a 30 day share price return of 7.44 percent and a year to date share price gain of 44.25 percent. The five year total shareholder return of 78.04 percent shows that momentum has been building over time.

If Rockwell’s push into cloud native automation has your attention, this is a good moment to explore other industrial tech names and see which high growth tech and AI stocks are quietly setting up for their next move.

With Rockwell trading above its average analyst price target while racking up hefty gains and bullish upgrades, investors now face a tougher question: is this still an underappreciated automation winner, or has the market already priced in its next leg of growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.1% Overvalued

With Rockwell shares last closing at $405.18 against a narrative fair value of $389.08, the story leans toward optimism and ambitious growth execution.

Analysts expect earnings to reach $1.5 billion (and earnings per share of $13.42) by about September 2028, up from $966.2 million today. However, there is some disagreement amongst the analysts with the more bearish ones expecting earnings as low as $1.3 billion.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady mid single digit revenue growth can still underpin a rich profit multiple and rising margins through the next cycle? The narrative leans on a mix of expanding software economics, disciplined buybacks, and a lower discount rate to keep that valuation aloft. Want to see exactly how those moving parts interact to justify today’s elevated price tag?

Result: Fair Value of $389.08 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering delays in customer CapEx and heavier tax headwinds from global minimum tax could quickly compress Rockwell’s earnings power and challenge today’s premium multiple.

Find out about the key risks to this Rockwell Automation narrative.

Build Your Own Rockwell Automation Narrative

If this outlook does not quite match your own, or you prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Rockwell Automation research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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