Revenue Miss: The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Fell 11% Short Of Analyst Revenue Estimates And Analysts Have Been Revising Their Models

As you might know, The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) last week released its latest third-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It looks like a weak result overall, with both revenues and earnings falling well short of analyst predictions. Revenues of US$820m missed by 11%, and statutory earnings per share of US$1.06 fell short of forecasts by 6.2%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Greenbrier Companies

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Greenbrier Companies are now predicting revenues of US$3.61b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 14% to US$4.52. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.61b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.50 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

With no major changes to earnings forecasts, the consensus price target fell 5.6% to US$56.67, suggesting that the analysts might have previously been hoping for an earnings upgrade. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Greenbrier Companies at US$65.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$42.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Greenbrier Companies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 2.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Greenbrier Companies is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Greenbrier Companies' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Greenbrier Companies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Greenbrier Companies has 3 warning signs (and 1 which shouldn't be ignored) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com