EMCOR Group, Inc.'s (NYSE:EME) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 75% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, EMCOR Group fair value estimate is US$717
• Current share price of US$410 suggests EMCOR Group is potentially 43% undervalued
• The US$487 analyst price target for EME is 32% less than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of EMCOR Group, Inc. (NYSE:EME) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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Crunching The Numbers

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$1.21b	US$1.32b	US$1.42b	US$1.50b	US$1.57b	US$1.63b	US$1.69b	US$1.75b	US$1.81b	US$1.87b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x4	Est @ 6.90%	Est @ 5.66%	Est @ 4.78%	Est @ 4.17%	Est @ 3.75%	Est @ 3.45%	Est @ 3.24%	Est @ 3.09%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	US$1.1k	US$1.2k	US$1.2k	US$1.1k	US$1.1k	US$1.1k	US$1.0k	US$1.0k	US$973	US$936

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$11b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.8%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₄ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.9b× (1 + 2.8%) ÷ (7.1%– 2.8%) = US$44b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$44b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= US$22b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$33b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$410, the company appears quite good value at a 43% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at EMCOR Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.014. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Check out our latest analysis for EMCOR Group

SWOT Analysis for EMCOR Group

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For EMCOR Group, there are three fundamental elements you should further research:

1. Risks: Be aware that EMCOR Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for EME's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.