The Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Full-Year Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Last week saw the newest yearly earnings release from Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$67b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Caterpillar surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$20.12 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Caterpillar

Following last week's earnings report, Caterpillar's 21 analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be US$67.2b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$20.70, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$67.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$20.61 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$310, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Caterpillar analyst has a price target of US$432 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$175. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Caterpillar's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 4.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Caterpillar.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$310, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Caterpillar going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Caterpillar .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.