Is the Kairos Power TRISO Fuel Collaboration Reshaping the Investment Case for BWX Technologies (BWXT)?

• In early September 2025, Kairos Power and BWX Technologies announced a collaboration to optimize commercial production of TRISO fuel for Kairos Power’s advanced reactors, beginning with the 50-MWe Hermes 2 demonstration plant scheduled for operation in 2030.
• This partnership is notable as it leverages BWXT’s extensive fuel manufacturing expertise to pursue the mass production of next-generation nuclear fuel, aiming to reduce costs and accelerate the commercial deployment of advanced reactors.
• We'll now explore how BWX Technologies' entry into advanced TRISO fuel supply may influence its position in the next-generation nuclear market.

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BWX Technologies Investment Narrative Recap

The core appeal for BWX Technologies shareholders lies in the company’s long-term backlog of government and defense contracts, underpinned by expanding opportunities in advanced nuclear solutions. The Kairos Power partnership around TRISO fuel signposts potential growth in next-generation nuclear, but its impact on near-term catalysts, such as major defense contract execution, remains relatively limited for now; however, it may help mitigate future dependence on legacy government revenue streams if commercial nuclear demand grows. The main short-term risk continues to center around the timing and renewal of large U.S. government awards, which could affect revenue visibility and cause earnings gyrations at contract cycle endpoints.

Among recent developments, BWXT’s July milestone in manufacturing advanced TRISO fuel stands out, directly complementing the collaboration with Kairos Power. This achievement shows the company’s technical progress and readiness for mass-producing next-generation nuclear fuels, reinforcing potential revenue streams from future advanced reactor deployments. But, unlike its Navy propulsion agreements, which materially drive the backlog and quarterly catalysts, commercial TRISO operations remain in a development phase and aren’t poised to change the company’s earnings trajectory in the immediate future.

By contrast, investors should be alert to how sensitive revenue remains to multi-year U.S. defense contract renewals, especially if…

Read the full narrative on BWX Technologies (it's free!)

BWX Technologies is projected to reach $3.9 billion in revenue and $494.7 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes an annual revenue growth rate of 11.1% and a $200.3 million increase in earnings from the current $294.4 million.

Uncover how BWX Technologies' forecasts yield a $181.50 fair value, a 11% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community estimate BWXT’s fair value between US$84.62 and US$250. Ongoing backlog growth from new defense and commercial nuclear contracts could influence whether these diverging views strengthen over the coming quarters. Explore how your outlook compares.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on BWX Technologies - why the stock might be worth as much as 53% more than the current price!

Build Your Own BWX Technologies Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your BWX Technologies research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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