Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ:RKLB) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.6% to close at US$3.97 following the release of its first-quarter results. Revenues of US$93m came in 2.3% below estimates, but statutory losses were well contained with a per-share loss of US$0.09 being some 12% smaller than what the analysts were predicting. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Rocket Lab USA

Following the latest results, Rocket Lab USA's ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$422.8m in 2024. This would be a sizeable 50% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$0.42 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$430.6m and US$0.41 per share in losses.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$7.87, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Rocket Lab USA at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.25. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Rocket Lab USA's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 71% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 55% per annum over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Rocket Lab USA is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.87, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Rocket Lab USA going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Rocket Lab USA that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.